原油價格暴跌 美國天然氣價格高于石油

據(jù)天然氣加工網(wǎng)站4月20日消息 美國石油期貨迅速暴跌，導(dǎo)致原油對天然氣的溢價首次出現(xiàn)赤字。

如果情況屬實(shí)，這可能會促使產(chǎn)油國在未來幾個月內(nèi)尋找天然氣，而不是石油，特別是如果一旦疫情傳播速度放緩、政府放松旅行限制、經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)反彈以及天然氣需求如預(yù)期恢復(fù)時。

然而，目前由于疫情導(dǎo)致能源需求消失、辦公樓關(guān)閉、工廠產(chǎn)能減少，石油和天然氣價格都大幅下跌。

自今年年初以來，由于疫情破壞需求和沙特與俄羅斯之間的價格戰(zhàn)的共同影響，美國原油期貨價格已暴跌逾150%，至每桶-37美元的創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄低點(diǎn)。

與此同時，今年到目前為止，天然氣期貨價格下跌了約11%。

在過去幾年里，美國能源公司把鉆探的重點(diǎn)放在尋找更多的石油上，部分原因是原油比天然氣更有價值。

在一些頁巖油盆地，如德克薩斯州西部的二疊紀(jì)盆地和北達(dá)科他州的巴克肯盆地，這些原油的伴生氣已經(jīng)超過了地區(qū)管道基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的處理能力。這導(dǎo)致一些當(dāng)?shù)靥烊粴鈨r格轉(zhuǎn)為負(fù)值，能源公司燃燒不需要的天然氣。

周一，油氣比（即石油與天然氣的交易水平）降至-18:1。相比之下，今年1月份的天然氣價格為6年來的31倍。按能源當(dāng)量計算，石油的交易量應(yīng)該是天然氣的六倍。

鑒于原油價格下跌，分析師預(yù)計美國產(chǎn)油國將削減頁巖盆地的石油鉆探，這將使賓夕法尼亞州、西弗吉尼亞州和俄亥俄州的馬塞勒斯和尤蒂卡等其他盆地的氣井產(chǎn)量更有價值。

這就是為什么天然氣價格（上漲10%）和幾家專注于天然氣的能源公司（如Antero Resources Corp）（上漲22%）、CNX Resources Corp（上漲16%）和EQT Corp（上漲14%）的股價都在上漲的原因。

不過，路易斯安那州亨利中心基準(zhǔn)的天然氣期貨仍有望在2020年降至1998年以來的最低年平均水平。

到2020年為止，原油的交易量約為天然氣的22倍，這與2019年的平均值相同，相比之下，5年平均值（2014-2018年）是天然氣的19倍。

吳恒磊 編譯自 天然氣加工

原文如下：

U.S. natgas trading at premium over oil after crude price collapse

The rapid collapse of U.S. oil futures caused crude’s premium over natural gas to turn into a deficit for the first time ever.

If it holds, that could prompt producers to search for gas instead of oil in future months - especially if gas demand recovers as expected when the economy snaps back after governments loosen travel restrictions once the coronavirus spread slows.

For now, however, both oil and gas prices have plunged as the coronavirus causes energy demand to vanish as offices close and factories run at reduced capacities.

Since the start of the year, U.S. crude futures have tumbled over 150% to a record low below minus $37 a barrel due to the combined impact of coronavirus demand destruction and a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Gas futures, meanwhile, were down about 11% so far this year due primarily to the pandemic’s demand loss.

Over the past several years, U.S. energy firms have focused their drilling on finding more oil in part because crude was much more valuable than gas.

In some shale oil basins like the Permian in West Texas and the Bakken in North Dakota, that crude has come out of the ground with more associated gas than regional pipeline infrastructure could handle. That caused some local gas prices to turn negative and energy firms to flare or burn unwanted gas.

The oil-to-gas ratio, or the level at which oil trades compared with gas, fell to minus 18-to-1 on Monday. That compares with a six-year high of 31 times over gas in January. On an energy equivalent basis, oil should trade six times over gas.

Now that crude prices have dropped, analysts expect U.S. producers to cut oil drilling in shale basins, which should make output from gas wells in other basins, like the Marcellus and Utica in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio, more valuable.

That’s why gas prices (up 10%) and the stocks of several gas-focused energy firms like Antero Resources Corp (up 22%), CNX Resources Corp (16%) and EQT Corp (up 14%) are rising.

Gas futures at the Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana, however, are still on track to drop in 2020 to their lowest annual average since 1998.

So far in 2020, crude has traded about 22 times over gas. That is the same as 2019’s average and compares with a five-year average (2014-2018) of 19 times over gas.