液化天然氣出口國面臨危機(jī)

據(jù)今日油價4月19日報道，2020年油價大幅下跌，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)受到侵害。美國能源信息署（EIA）預(yù)測，2020年，美國石油日產(chǎn)量很可能下降約50萬桶，至1176萬桶/天。美國不少中小型石油生產(chǎn)商正面臨破產(chǎn)危機(jī)。與此同時，各大石油公司都在削減資本支出，并推遲重大項目投資。然而，不僅是石油生產(chǎn)國應(yīng)該做好準(zhǔn)備迎接挑戰(zhàn)，液化天然氣出口國也要做好直面危機(jī)的準(zhǔn)備。

液化天然氣需求受到全球需求驟減和油價暴跌的沉重打擊，這在歐洲尤其嚴(yán)重。2020年3月，歐洲每月的液化天然氣進(jìn)口量創(chuàng)歷史新高，1045萬噸液化天然氣運(yùn)抵歐洲。隨著價格跌至前所未有的低點，這種情況很大程度上是在意料之中的，盡管2019/2020年冬季比較暖和。

卡塔爾每月向亞洲液化天然氣市場供應(yīng)400萬至500萬噸液化天然氣，但其核心出口市場的需求在未來幾個月內(nèi)都將出現(xiàn)萎縮。盡管所有歐洲主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體的液化天然氣價格仍低于2美元/百萬英熱，但卡塔爾低廉的生產(chǎn)成本、龐大的資源基礎(chǔ)以及較小的競爭壓力，使其在歐洲的液化天然氣市場中處于有利地位。許多分析師表示，歐洲天然氣市場面臨的首要難題是美國液化天然氣(LNG)和俄羅的管道天然氣的競爭，而如今競爭的范圍呈指數(shù)級擴(kuò)大。除了美國的液化天然氣和俄羅斯天然氣工業(yè)股份公司供應(yīng)的管道天然氣，卡塔爾還將以增加亞馬爾液化天然氣供應(yīng)爭奪市場份額。

今年3月，亞馬爾向比利時澤布呂格液化天然氣終端出口的液化天然氣量達(dá)到歷史最高水平，——這是俄羅斯液化天然氣的主要中轉(zhuǎn)站之一。盡管對歐洲和全球各大洲的天然氣出口量并沒有達(dá)到2019年12月的峰值水平，但有強(qiáng)烈跡象表明，諾瓦泰克及其亞馬爾液化天然氣合作伙伴已開始忽略利潤，關(guān)注市場占有率。

所有國家在保持今年的經(jīng)濟(jì)正增長方面都遇到了巨大的困難，下面的說法可能聽起來有點不合邏輯，但有一個強(qiáng)有力的反駁理由是，向歐洲輸送的液化天然氣不會隨著石油需求的下降而急劇減少，因為，液化天然氣的價格處于歷史低位。卡塔爾顯然關(guān)注到了這一點，并一直在積極明顯地尋求英國、比荷盧(Benelux)和意大利市場，卡塔爾天然氣公司在這些市場有長期承諾，同時一直避免向西班牙和其它國家供應(yīng)現(xiàn)貨。按照4月份的情況來看，美國的液化天然氣供應(yīng)量將較歷史最高水平下降50%。

鄒勤 摘譯自 今日油價

原文如下：

Qatar And Russia Fight For LNG Supremacy As Prices Fall To Historic Lows

The 2020 drastic oil price drop, induced by the ever-frightening coronavirus and the Saudi-Russian spat, has ravaged business interests all across the world. US oil producers are facing a new reality – instead of a seemingly watertight growth trajectory, 2020 will most probably witness a decline in annual oil output by some 0.5mbpd, to the level of 11.76mbpd if one is to believe the last EIA forecast. Small and medium-sized US producers are bracing for a series of bankruptcies, the ones with more robust political connections are trying to salvage a deal that would provide some hope for a quick price hike, all the while the majors are cutting CAPEX and postponing major investments. Yet it is not only oil producers who should brace for a tiny revolution – LNG exporters will be the next in line, as can be judged from the current state of things in Europe.

The double whammy of oil prices plummeting and coronavirus diminishing LNG demand is still in its relative nascency in Europe. March 2020 has seen the highest-ever level of monthly LNG imports into Europe, with 10.45 million tons of LNG arriving across 170 cargoes. With prices dropping to unprecedented lows, this was very much to be expected, the warm winter of 2019/2020 notwithstanding. Then COVID-19 cut all the hype short. Chinese LNG demand is still moving back to the pre-COVID levels, India has declared a total lockdown, Japan has now declared a state of emergency until at least May 06 and South Korea already asking term LNG suppliers for delays on the back of missing demand – against such a background, the loss of the European market outlet ought to hurt.

Qatar, supplying the Asian LNG market with 4-5 million LNG tons per month, must confront demand faltering in its core export market for at least several months now. Despite landed LNG prices remaining lower than 2/MMbtu in all of Europe’s main economies, Qatar’s low production costs, massive resource base and lack of domestic competition place it in a favorable position when it comes to a LNG race to the bottom in Europe. For many analysts, the overarching dilemma of the European gas market was whether US LNG could prevail over Russian pipeline supplies, yet now the scope for competition expanded exponentially. Apart from US LNG and the Gazprom-supplied pipeline gas, Qatar will be also competing against Russian LNG in the form of increasing Yamal LNG supplies.

Yamal LNG exports to the Zeebrugge LNG terminal in Belgium have reached an all-time high in March 2020, one of the main transshipment points for Russian LNG, partially on the back of Zeebrugge commissioning a 5th storage tank for Russian volumes. Although not a peak export level per se, neither to Europe nor globally to all continents (both took place in December 2019), there is a strong indication that NOVATEK and its partners on Yamal LNG are starting to prioritize maintaining market share over increasingly slim profits. With the Chinese market – heretofore a significant pull factor for Yamal LNG volumes – all but non-existent for March and April-arriving cargoes, the battle for Europe seems to be intensifying.

The following might sound a bit illogical, given that Europe is currently in the throes of COVID-19 and countries across-the-board experience monumental difficulty in keeping this year’s economic growth numbers positive, yet there is a powerful counterargument for LNG deliveries to Europe not to decrease as steeply as oil demand decreased. That reason is the all-time low price of LNG. Qatar also understands this and has been palpably seeking to secure the UK, Benelux and Italian market where Qatargas has long-term commitments, all the while avoiding spot supplies to Spain and elsewhere. The simultaneous push of Qatar and Russia will leave very little space for American LNG – just as it reached a peak this February at 3.1 million LNG tons, if things stand as they are April deliveries will fall by 50% from that all-time high.