原油價格極有可能會跌至10美元

據(jù)4月20日FXstreet報道，油價跌至21年來的最低點，西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油價格跌幅超過18%，至每桶14.45美元。油價大幅下跌是主要受到需求不和石油存儲空間不足的影響，減產(chǎn)未能解決供應(yīng)過剩問題。因此，WTI原油價格極有可能跌至10美元/桶。

受疫情影響，石油需求一直在削弱。在供應(yīng)方面的工作做的還不夠充分，當(dāng)下能源公司資本支出削減的規(guī)模還不夠，美國需要削減更多石油產(chǎn)量。

估計當(dāng)前鉆機(jī)數(shù)量不斷減少，要恢復(fù)到以前的水平可能還需要一兩個月的時間，這意味著油價將跌至更低的水平。如果油價跌至10美元至13美元/桶(這是一種可能的情況)，那么最高限價可能為15美元至18美元/桶。

毫無疑問的是，油價在目前的水平上處于供應(yīng)過剩狀態(tài)，鑒于當(dāng)前態(tài)勢，油價很可能會繼續(xù)下跌，因為鉆機(jī)數(shù)量還沒有觸底。但對于長線投資者來說(12個月到24個月)，油價暴跌也是一種機(jī)遇。

洪偉立 摘譯自 FXstreet

原文如下：

Crude oil down over 18%, can it drop to $10?

Oil has dropped to a 21-year low today. Basically, bears are out for blood. The WTI West Texas Crude Oil dropped over 18 percent today and made a low of $14.45, a price level that has surprised traders today. The steep fall in the price is because of the lack of sufficient demand and lack of storage place given the fact that the production cut has failed to address the supply glut. There is a strong possibility that WTI Crude Oil prices can drop to $10. Yes, I mean $10! And here it is why.

Since the start of the Coronavirus pandemic, oil’s demand has been crippled. There is little done from the supply side, the CAPEX cut by energy companies aren’t enough, we need organic oil production cut from the U.S.

If the price falls to $13 to $16 range (which it already has), the upside range could be $20 to $23.

If the price falls to $10 to $13, a likely scenario, the immediate ceiling level could be $15 to $18.

The bottom line is that there is no doubt that oil prices are way oversold at the current level, but given the circumstances, it is likely that the price may continue to fall further because the rig count hasn’t touched its bottom yet. But for an investor who holds a long term perspective, a time frame of 12 months to 24 months, the current plunge in oil price represents an opportunity.