油價(jià)暴跌正在顛覆美國石油化工行業(yè)

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2020年4月15日?qǐng)?bào)道，業(yè)內(nèi)知情分析人士日前表示，雖然美國頁巖產(chǎn)量下降是油價(jià)暴跌造成的直接后果，但低油價(jià)已經(jīng)在能源市場(chǎng)引發(fā)了一系列事件，這將不可避免地影響美國石油化工行業(yè)的供應(yīng)鏈。

英國調(diào)查公司IHS Markit在其最近的一份分析報(bào)告中表示，由于油價(jià)暴跌，石化產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)鏈可能正在陷入困難境地。

專家和美國能源信息署(EIA)表示，美國石油產(chǎn)量下降將導(dǎo)致產(chǎn)油井的伴生天然氣產(chǎn)量下降，從而導(dǎo)致今年剩余時(shí)間美國每月天然氣產(chǎn)量下降。

然后，美國天然氣產(chǎn)量的下降也將打擊天然氣液體的產(chǎn)量，包括乙烷、丙烷、丁烷和天然汽油，這些都是石油化工部門的重要原料或用于取暖和烹飪的燃料。例如，乙烷和丙烷是用于生產(chǎn)塑料和樹脂化合物石化產(chǎn)品的關(guān)鍵原料。

根據(jù)EIA匯編的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，隨著頁巖氣近幾年來的蓬勃發(fā)展，美國油田的天然氣液體日產(chǎn)量也創(chuàng)下了500多萬桶的歷史新高。

IHS Markit中游石油和天然氣液體集團(tuán)主管維拉爾·梅赫塔表示，在過去兩年中，天然氣液體產(chǎn)量在2017年至2019年期間大幅增長了27%。

就在3個(gè)月前，分析師們還在預(yù)計(jì)美國的天然氣液體產(chǎn)量今明兩年將繼續(xù)增長。去年12月，業(yè)內(nèi)資深分析人士告訴NGI的《頁巖日?qǐng)?bào)》，在石油導(dǎo)向鉆井作業(yè)中擴(kuò)大和增長管道天然氣液體輸送能力將在2020年推動(dòng)美國天然氣液體產(chǎn)量的增長。

在疫情爆發(fā)之前，IHS Markit曾預(yù)計(jì)美國天然氣液體產(chǎn)量將繼續(xù)過去兩年的強(qiáng)勁增長，到2021年將增長近19%。

然而，疫情影響導(dǎo)致的需求銳減引發(fā)了油價(jià)暴跌和歐佩克+組織打起價(jià)格戰(zhàn)，其結(jié)果是WTI原油價(jià)格跌至每桶20美元以及美國石油和天然氣產(chǎn)量下降。

現(xiàn)在，IHS Markit預(yù)計(jì)未來兩年美國天然氣液體的總產(chǎn)量將或多或少持平。

IHS Markit的梅赫塔日前曾表示：“然而，考慮到美國和(尤其是)全球?qū)μ烊粴庖后w的需求預(yù)計(jì)在未來兩年內(nèi)仍將增長，美國天然氣液體‘重置’可能會(huì)給石化供應(yīng)鏈帶來麻煩?！?/span>

EIA在其最新的4月短期能源展望報(bào)告中預(yù)計(jì)，美國天然氣廠液體燃料產(chǎn)量將從今年第一季度的每天512萬桶下降至明年第一季度的每天473萬桶，然后在明年第一季度以后開始增長。

根據(jù)能源數(shù)據(jù)分析公司Enverus的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，在低油價(jià)的預(yù)期中，美國天然氣液體產(chǎn)量在2021年將下降。

能源咨詢公司伍德麥肯茲表示，天然氣液體供應(yīng)是繼煉油廠供應(yīng)之后的第二個(gè)與能源連接的關(guān)鍵原料。伍德麥肯茲分析師在4月初的一篇評(píng)論文章中稱，短期天然氣液體供應(yīng)比煉廠供應(yīng)更為強(qiáng)勁，但北美上游部門的資本支出削減“將在中期內(nèi)直接影響石化買家”。擁有最大原料靈活性的資產(chǎn)將處于最佳位置。

伍德麥肯茲分析師們指出，“凍結(jié)的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)和不穩(wěn)定的原料價(jià)格將對(duì)‘石化行業(yè)’產(chǎn)生直接而巨大的影響”。

所有這些預(yù)測(cè)都表明，過去兩個(gè)月石油市場(chǎng)發(fā)生的戲劇性事件將影響全球能源行業(yè)的每一個(gè)角落。

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Oil Price Crash Is Upending The Petrochemicals Industry

While the U.S. shale production decline is the immediate outcome of the price collapse, low crude oil prices have triggered a chain of events in the energy markets that will inevitably impact the supply chain of the petrochemicals industry, analysts say.

There could be trouble brewing in the petrochemicals supply chain because of the oil price collapse, IHS Markit said in a recent analysis.

The lower U.S. oil production will lead to lower associated natural gas production from oil-directed wells, resulting in monthly declines in U.S. natural gas production through the rest of the year, according to experts and the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Then the decline in U.S. natural gas production will also hit the production of natural gas liquids (NGLs) — ethane, propane, butanes, and natural gasoline – which are used as feedstocks for the petrochemicals sector or burned for heating and cooking. Ethane and propane, for example, are key feedstocks for petrochemicals used for producing compounds to manufacture plastics and resins.

In lockstep with the shale gas boom in recent years, U.S. field production of NGLs has surged to record highs of more than 5 million barrels per day (bpd), as per EIA data.

Over the past two years, NGLs production jumped by 27 percent between 2017 and 2019, said Veeral Mehta, director on the Midstream Oil and Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) group at IHS Markit.

Just three months ago, analysts expected that America’s NGLs production would continue to grow this year and next. Expanding pipeline NGL capacity and growth in oil-directed drilling were set to push U.S. production of NGLs higher in 2020, analysts told NGI’s Shale Daily in December 2019.

Before the coronacrisis, IHS Markit expected that U.S. NGL production would continue its strong growth from the past two years and rise almost 19 percent by 2021.

However, the coronavirus pandemic triggered the oil price crash and the OPEC+ family drama, the result of which is WTI Crude at $20 per barrel and lower oil and natural gas production in the U.S.

And now IHS Markit expects total U.S. NGLs production to be more or less flat over the next two years.

“However, given that US and (especially) global demand for NGLs is still forecast to grow in the next two years, this US NGL "reset" could spell trouble for the petrochemical supply chain,” IHS Markit’s Mehta wrote last week.

In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for April, the EIA sees natural gas plant liquids production in the U.S. dropping from 5.12 million bpd in Q1 2020 to 4.73 million bpd in Q1 2021, before starting to grow after the first quarter of 2021.

According to energy data analytics company Enverus, U.S. NGLs production is set to decline over the next year amid expectations of low oil prices.

Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie says that NGLs supply is the second key energy-linked feedstock after refinery supplies. Short-term NGLs supply is more robust than refinery supplies, WoodMac analysts said in an opinion piece at the beginning of April.

Short-term NGLs supply may be more robust, but the capital expenditure (capex) cuts in North America’s upstream sector “will directly affect petrochemical buyers in the medium term. Assets with the most feedstock flexibility will be best positioned,” Wood Mackenzie said.

“Frozen economic activity and volatile feedstock pricing will both have an immediate and dramatic impact” on the petrochemicals sector, the analysts noted.

All these projections show that the dramatic events in the oil market over the past two months will affect every corner of the global energy industry.