IEA：下半年石油需求可能超過(guò)供應(yīng)

據(jù)Oil & Gas Journal網(wǎng)站4月15日消息 國(guó)際能源署（IEA）在其4月份的石油市場(chǎng)報(bào)告中表示，如果石油產(chǎn)量大幅下降，部分石油進(jìn)入戰(zhàn)略儲(chǔ)備，需求開(kāi)始復(fù)蘇，那么2020年下半年將出現(xiàn)供不應(yīng)求的局面。

4月12日，歐佩克+集團(tuán)的產(chǎn)油國(guó)同意從5月1日起，將最初的日產(chǎn)量減少970萬(wàn)桶。與此同時(shí)，G20表示支持歐佩克+成員國(guó)穩(wěn)定石油市場(chǎng)的努力，并在某些情況下討論了將立即或隨著時(shí)間推移進(jìn)行的減產(chǎn)。

據(jù)IEA稱，歐佩克+和G20的舉措將從三個(gè)方面影響石油市場(chǎng)。

首先，為了達(dá)到基準(zhǔn)，5月份歐佩克+減產(chǎn)將為1070萬(wàn)桶/日，而不是970萬(wàn)桶/日，因?yàn)?月份產(chǎn)量較高。這將為未來(lái)幾周的供應(yīng)過(guò)剩提供一些即時(shí)緩解，從而降低庫(kù)存累積的峰值。

其次，四個(gè)國(guó)家（印度、韓國(guó)和美國(guó)等）要么向工業(yè)界提供戰(zhàn)略儲(chǔ)備能力，以暫時(shí)儲(chǔ)存不需要的石油，要么考慮增加戰(zhàn)略儲(chǔ)備，以利用價(jià)格下跌的優(yōu)勢(shì)。這將為即將到來(lái)的股市上漲創(chuàng)造額外的空間，幫助市場(chǎng)度過(guò)低谷。

第三，據(jù)IEA估計(jì)，由于價(jià)格下降的影響，其他生產(chǎn)國(guó)（美國(guó)和加拿大可能是最大的貢獻(xiàn)國(guó)）未來(lái)幾個(gè)月的產(chǎn)量可能下降約350萬(wàn)桶/日。這一供應(yīng)的減少加上歐佩克+的減產(chǎn)，將使市場(chǎng)在2020年下半年轉(zhuǎn)虧為盈，確保庫(kù)存的積累結(jié)束，市場(chǎng)狀況恢復(fù)到更正常的水平。

王磊 摘譯自 Oil & Gas Journal

原文如下：

IEA: 2020 second half could see oil demand exceed supply

If oil production falls sharply, some oil goes into strategic stocks, and demand begins to recover, the second half of 2020 will see demand exceed supply, the International Energy Agency said in its April Oil Market Report.

On Apr. 12, oil producers in the OPEC+ group agreed to cut output by an initial 9.7 million b/d versus their agreed baseline, effective May 1. Meantime, G20 countries offered their support of efforts by OPEC+ countries to stabilize the oil market and, in some cases, discussed output cuts that would take place immediately or over time.

The OPEC+ and G20 initiatives will impact the oil market in three ways, according to IEA.

First, to reach the baseline, May’s OPEC+ production cut will be 10.7 million b/d and not 9.7 million b/d, as April production was high. This will provide some immediate relief from the supply surplus in the coming weeks, lowering the peak of the build-up of stocks.

Second, four countries (India, Korea, and the US.etc) have either offered their strategic storage capacity to industry to temporarily park unwanted barrels or are considering increasing their strategic stocks to take advantage of lower prices. This will create extra headroom for the impending stock build-up, helping the market get past the hump.

Third, other producers, with the US and Canada likely to be the largest contributors, could see output fall by around 3.5 million b/d in the coming months due to the impact of lower prices, according to IEA estimates. The loss of this supply combined with the OPEC+ cuts will shift the market into a deficit in the second half of 2020, ensuring an end to the build-up of stocks and a return to more normal market conditions.