美國(guó)天然氣期貨價(jià)格下跌4%

據(jù)路透社4月15日?qǐng)?bào)道，因市場(chǎng)更加關(guān)注未來(lái)需求削減的預(yù)期，而非未來(lái)兩周降溫和供暖增加的短期預(yù)測(cè)，美國(guó)天然氣期貨價(jià)格周二下跌逾4%。

紐約商品交易所5月份交割的近月天然氣期貨價(jià)格下跌7.4美分，至每百萬(wàn)英熱1.65美元，跌幅為4.3%，創(chuàng)下一周來(lái)的最低收盤(pán)點(diǎn)位。這是自2月以來(lái)首次出現(xiàn)連續(xù)4天的下跌。在此期間，該合約已縮水約11%。

即使在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩和能源需求下滑之前，天然氣價(jià)格就已接近多年來(lái)的最低水平，因?yàn)閯?chuàng)紀(jì)錄的產(chǎn)量和數(shù)月的暖冬天氣使公用事業(yè)公司得以將更多燃料儲(chǔ)存起來(lái)，使得供應(yīng)短缺和價(jià)格飆升不大可能出現(xiàn)。在4月的第一個(gè)星期，近月天然氣期貨價(jià)格降至1995年8月以來(lái)的最低點(diǎn)。

不過(guò)，展望未來(lái)，2020年剩余時(shí)間和2021年交割的天然氣期貨價(jià)格出現(xiàn)大幅上漲，因?yàn)槭袌?chǎng)預(yù)計(jì)，隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇，未來(lái)幾個(gè)月的需求將大幅上升。

與此同時(shí)，6月期貨相對(duì)于5月NGK20-M20的溢價(jià)升至2008年合約開(kāi)始交易以來(lái)的最高水平，而2021年的合約比2022年超出24天，比2025年的合約超出14天。

美國(guó)能源信息署(EIA)預(yù)計(jì)，隨著辦公場(chǎng)所關(guān)閉和工廠產(chǎn)能降低，2020年美國(guó)天然氣日消耗量將從2019年創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的849.7億立方英尺降至837.9億立方英尺，2021年降至812.4億立方英尺。這將是自2017年以來(lái)需求首次出現(xiàn)年度下降，也是自2006年以來(lái)需求首次連續(xù)兩年下降。

但隨著短期內(nèi)天氣轉(zhuǎn)冷，數(shù)據(jù)提供商Refinitiv預(yù)計(jì)，包括出口在內(nèi)，美國(guó)48個(gè)州的天然氣需求本周將達(dá)到976億立方英尺/天，下周將達(dá)到950億立方英尺/天。這高于Refinitiv周一預(yù)測(cè)的973億立方英尺/天和943億立方英尺/天。

與此同時(shí)，據(jù)Refinitiv的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，周一流入美國(guó)液化天然氣出口工廠的天然氣量從周日的78億立方英尺/天增至87億立方英尺/天，創(chuàng)歷史新高。而上周為80億立方英尺/天，1月31日為9億立方英尺/天。

根據(jù)Refinitiv的數(shù)據(jù)，美國(guó)對(duì)墨西哥管道出口量從周日的53億立方英尺/天跌至周一的52億立方英尺/天，為10周來(lái)的低點(diǎn)。相比之下，上周為54億立方英尺/天，而在10月17日曾達(dá)創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的58億立方英尺/天。

鄒勤 摘譯自 路透社

原文如下：

U.S. natgas futures fall 4% on coronavirus demand destruction worries

U.S. natural gas futures fell over 4% on Tuesday as the market focused more on projections that steps to slow the coronavirus spread will cut future demand rather than short-term forecasts for cooler weather and higher heating use over the next two weeks.

Front-month gas futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 7.4 cents,or 4.3%, to settle at $1.650 per million British thermal units, their lowest close in over a week. That puts the front-month down for a fourth day in a row for the first time since February. During that time, the contract has lost about 11%.

Even before the coronavirus started to cut global economic growth and energy demand, gas was trading near its lowest in years as record production and months of mild winter weather allowed utilities to leave more fuel in storage, making shortages and price spikes unlikely. During the first week of April, the front-month settled at its lowest since August 1995.

Looking ahead, however, gas futures for the balance of 2020 and calendar 2021 were trading much higher than the front month on expectations demand will jump in coming months as the economy recovers once governments loosen travel and work restrictions after slowing the spread of the coronavirus.

Along those lines, the premium of futures for June over May NGK20-M20 rose to its highest since 2008 when the contracts started trading, while calendar 2021 has traded over 2022 for 24 days and over 2025 for 14 days.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected the coronavirus would cut U.S. gas consumption to 83.79 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2020 and 81.24 bcfd in 2021 from a record 84.97 bcfd in 2019 as offices close and factories run at lower capacities. That would be the first annual decline in consumption since 2017 and the first time demand will have fallen for two consecutive years since 2006.

But with cooler weather coming in the short-term, data provider Refinitiv projected gas demand in the U.S. Lower 48 states, including exports, would reach 97.6 bcfd this week and 95.0 bcfd next week. That is higher than Refinitiv's forecasts on Monday of 97.3 bcfd this week and 94.3 bcfd next week.

The amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas export plants, meanwhile, rose to 8.7 bcfd on Monday from 7.8 bcfd on Sunday, according to Refinitiv. That compares with an average of 8.0 bcfd last week and an all-time daily high of 9.5 bcfd on Jan. 31.

U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico fell to a 10-week low of 5.2 bcfd on Monday from 5.3 bcfd on Sunday, according to Refinitiv. That compares with an average of 5.4 bcfd last week and an all-time high of 5.8 bcfd on Oct. 17.