油價小幅走高

據(jù)4月14日Energy Voice報道，投資者在權(quán)衡全球最大產(chǎn)油國減產(chǎn)協(xié)議是否足以抵消需求缺口后，油價重新升至每桶近23美元。

紐約期貨價格上漲1.1%，有望實現(xiàn)三個交易日以來的首次上漲。沙特能源部長周一對記者表示，若有需要，沙特準備在6月份的歐佩克+聯(lián)盟再次召開會議時進一步削減供應(yīng)。

5月至6月的價差進一步擴大，這表明即使有限制措施，現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)過剩仍在擴大。歐佩克從5月份開始減產(chǎn)970萬桶/天的協(xié)議，是歷史上最大的減產(chǎn)規(guī)模，但與石油消費大幅下降相比，仍相形見絀。

自2月中旬以來，石油價格一直在直線下跌。航空燃油、汽油等燃料消費暴跌，隨著全球需求的驟降，沙特阿拉伯正尋求通過降低其銷往亞洲和地中海地區(qū)的所有油品的價格，來保持其石油競爭力。

Oanda亞太地區(qū)高級市場分析師Jeffrey Halley表示:"我認為，在2021年之前，石油消費水平將無法恢復(fù)到以前的水平，雖然已出現(xiàn)了許多利好消息。即使在經(jīng)濟暫時恢復(fù)運轉(zhuǎn)之后，歐佩克仍將面臨相當(dāng)大的挑戰(zhàn)，來使其供應(yīng)與石油的實際需求相匹配。”

紐約商品交易所(New York Mercantile Exchange) 5月份交割的西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油價格上漲24美分，至每桶22.65美元，此前漲幅高達3%。該合約周一下跌1.5%。ICE歐洲期貨交易所(ICE Futures Europe exchange) 6月份交貨的布倫特原油期貨價格周一上漲0.8%，至每桶32.21美元，上漲1.5%。

沙特能源部長阿卜杜勒-阿齊茲·本·薩勒曼王子在電話會議上表示，只有歐佩克其他成員國相應(yīng)減產(chǎn)，沙特阿拉伯才會進一步削減原油產(chǎn)量。他警告稱，石油需求破壞預(yù)測可能過于悲觀，因此或許不需要進一步減產(chǎn)。

德州石油監(jiān)管機構(gòu)定于周二討論針對油價暴跌采取的供應(yīng)限制措施，但畢馬威國際認為減產(chǎn)的可能性不大。德克薩斯州的石油產(chǎn)量僅次于沙特阿拉伯，超過了所有歐佩克成員國。

王佳晶 摘譯自 Energy Voice

原文如下：

Oil edges higher as market weighs output cuts against demand

Oil resumed gains to near $23 a barrel as investors weigh whether a deal by the world’s biggest producers to reduce output will be enough to offset the demand destruction caused by the coronavirus.

Futures added 1.1% in New York, on track for its first advance in three sessions. Saudi Arabia’s energy minister told reporters on Monday that the kingdom is ready to trim supply further if needed when the OPEC+ alliance meets again in June.

The May-June timespread moved deeper into contango, signaling an expanding physical glut even with the curbs. The OPEC+ agreement to slash production by 9.7 million barrels a day starting in May amounts to the largest coordinated cut in history, but is still dwarfed by the much greater decline in oil consumption.

Oil has been in freefall since the middle of February after nation’s across the world went into lockdown to try to stop the virus from spreading, curbing consumption of everything from jet fuel to gasoline. As global demand vanishes, Saudi Arabia is seeking to keep its barrels competitive by reducing prices for all its grades to Asia and the Mediterranean region.

“I can’t see a return to previous consumption levels for oil until 2021 and a lot of the good news is already built in,” said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst for Asia Pacific at Oanda. “Even after the tentative reopening of economies, it is still going to be quite challenging for OPEC to match their supply to the actual demand for oil.”

West Texas Intermediate for May delivery rose 24 cents to $22.65 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 12:27 p.m. Singapore time after increasing as much as 3% earlier. The contract declined 1.5% on Monday. Brent for June delivery gained 1.5% to $32.21 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange after climbing 0.8% on Monday.

Saudi Arabia would only cut its crude output further if others within OPEC+ reduced their production accordingly, Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said on a conference call. He cautioned that the more bearish forecasts for oil demand destruction may be too pessimistic, and therefore the alliance may not need to make deeper cuts.

Texas oil regulators are scheduled Tuesday to discuss supply restrictions in response to the price crash, but KPMG International sees a low probability that cuts will be instituted. Texas pumps more oil than every OPEC member except Saudi Arabia.