EIA預(yù)測(cè)今年布倫特原油均價(jià)為33美元

據(jù)能源世界網(wǎng)4月9日新德里報(bào)道，美國(guó)能源信息署（EIA）預(yù)測(cè)，今年布倫特原油每桶均價(jià)為33美元，低于此前預(yù)測(cè)的43美元。

EIA在其最新的能源展望報(bào)告中表示，由于2019年疫情對(duì)能源市場(chǎng)的影響仍在不斷發(fā)展，因此該預(yù)測(cè)將面臨更大的不確定性。

EIA稱，尤其是自2020年初以來(lái)，原油價(jià)格大幅下跌，主要原因是疫情造成的經(jīng)濟(jì)收縮以及石油輸出國(guó)組織(OPEC)和伙伴國(guó)家之間先前商定的減產(chǎn)暫停后原油供應(yīng)突然增加。

EIA預(yù)計(jì)2020年第二季度布倫特原油每桶均價(jià)為23美元，然后在下半年提高至每桶30美元。

該機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)測(cè)，由于全球石油庫(kù)存下降給價(jià)格帶來(lái)上行壓力，2021年布倫特均價(jià)將升至每桶46美元，較上個(gè)月的預(yù)測(cè)下調(diào)10美元。

據(jù)估計(jì)，2020年第一季度，全球石油和液體燃料的日均消費(fèi)量約為9440萬(wàn)桶，較2019年同期減少560萬(wàn)桶。

EIA預(yù)計(jì)，今年，全球石油和液體燃料日需求將從去年的1.007億桶下降520萬(wàn)桶，然后在2021年增加640萬(wàn)桶。

EIA的最新能源展望預(yù)測(cè)的全球石油需求增長(zhǎng)下降反映出越來(lái)越多的證據(jù)表明，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)受到嚴(yán)重破壞，預(yù)期的全球旅行減少。

EIA預(yù)計(jì)，全球液態(tài)燃料庫(kù)存在2019年下降約20萬(wàn)桶/日之后，今年將日均增長(zhǎng)390萬(wàn)桶。

由于廣泛的旅行限制和經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的急劇減少，預(yù)計(jì)2020年上半年庫(kù)存增幅將是最大的，第一季度將以570萬(wàn)桶/日的速度增長(zhǎng)，第二季度將以1140萬(wàn)桶/日的速度增長(zhǎng)。

隨著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)開(kāi)始復(fù)蘇，供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)放緩，需求增長(zhǎng)將導(dǎo)致全球石油庫(kù)存從今年第四季度開(kāi)始減少。EIA預(yù)計(jì)，全球液體燃料庫(kù)存2021年將下降170萬(wàn)桶/日。

該機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)測(cè)，美國(guó)將于2020年第三季度恢復(fù)為原油和石油產(chǎn)品的凈進(jìn)口國(guó)。

郝芬 譯自 能源世界網(wǎng)

原文如下：

EIA forecasts Brent crude oil prices to average $33 in 2020

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has projected Brent crude prices to average $33 per barrel in 2020, down from $43 per barrel forecasted earlier.

The agency said in its latest energy outlook report the projection is subject to heightened levels of uncertainty because the impacts of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on energy markets are still evolving.

“Crude oil prices, in particular, have fallen significantly since the beginning of 2020, largely driven by the economic contraction caused by COVID-19 and a sudden increase in crude oil supply following the suspension of previously agreed upon production cuts among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and partner countries,” EIA said.

EIA expects Brent crude prices to average $23 per barrel during the second quarter of 2020 before increasing to $30per barrel during the second half of the year.

The agency forecasts that average Brent prices will increase to an average of $46 per barrel in 2021, lower by $10 forecasted last month, as declining global oil inventories puts upward pressure on prices.

It estimated global petroleum and liquid fuels consumption to average around 94.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in the first quarter of 2020, a decline of 5.6 million b/d from the same period in 2019.

EIA expects global petroleum and liquid fuels demand to decrease by 5.2 million b/d in 2020 from an average of 100.7 million b/d last year before increasing by 6.4 million b/d in 2021.

Lower global oil demand growth projected in its latest energy outlook edition reflects growing evidence of significant disruptions to global economic activity along with reduced expected travel globally because of COVID-19.

EIA expects global liquid fuels inventories to grow by an average of 3.9 million b/d in 2020 after falling by about 0.2 million b/d in 2019.

Inventory builds are expected to be the largest in the first half of 2020, rising at a rate of 5.7 million b/d in the first quarter and increasing to builds of 11.4 million b/d in the second quarter as a result of widespread travel limitations and sharp reductions in economic activity.

Firmer demand growth as the global economy begins to recover and slower supply growth will contribute to global oil inventory draws beginning in the fourth quarter of 2020. EIA expects global liquid fuels inventories will decline by 1.7 million b/d in 2021.

The agency has forecasted the US to return to being a net importer of crude oil and petroleum products in the third quarter of 2020.