美國1/3的剩余原油儲能將在4月飽和

據(jù)油田技術(shù)4月11日報道，當(dāng)下全球需求暴跌，隨著石油生產(chǎn)國繼續(xù)就減產(chǎn)爭吵不休，石油庫存也在逐日增加。Rystad Energy的一份分析報告顯示，按照目前的存儲速度，美國現(xiàn)有可用原油儲存容量的三分之一將在4月份被裝滿。隨著更多的石油被開采出來，該國出現(xiàn)歷史上最大規(guī)模停產(chǎn)的日子也就不遠(yuǎn)了。

Rystad Energy分析顯示，美國的商用石油儲量約為6.534億桶，包括管道填埋和運(yùn)輸途中的原油在內(nèi)約為7.8億桶。截至3月底，石油庫存已達(dá)4.692億桶。

非商業(yè)石油儲備，即戰(zhàn)略石油儲備(SPRs)，可儲存7.135億桶原油，而且已經(jīng)接近飽和，因?yàn)橐呀?jīng)儲存了6.349億桶原油。這意味著剩余的備用能力為3.898億桶或29%，其中3.118億桶供商業(yè)庫存使用，7850萬桶供SPRs使用。

Rystad Energy資深石油市場分析師Paola Rodriguez-Masiu表示："我們目前估計，隨著煉廠大幅減少減產(chǎn)，生產(chǎn)商帶來約1270萬桶/天的供應(yīng)，商業(yè)原油庫存可能在2020年4月增加近9000萬桶。"

4月份的原油供應(yīng)將使現(xiàn)有的原油儲能減少三分之一，理論上只剩下約2億桶的儲油能力(或按相同的裝油速度再增加兩個月)。實(shí)際上，可用原油儲能可能接近1.5億桶。

此外，并不是所有市場參與者都能平等獲得儲存空間。生產(chǎn)商可能很難獲得這種儲能，因?yàn)榇蠖鄶?shù)工廠遠(yuǎn)離生產(chǎn)區(qū)域，只能通過管道才能到達(dá)，而由于終端缺少買家，管道運(yùn)營商已經(jīng)在限制石油進(jìn)入管道系統(tǒng)。此外，有一定比例的可用產(chǎn)能已經(jīng)鎖定在長期租賃協(xié)議中。

Rodriguez-Masiu補(bǔ)充道：“許多市場參與者認(rèn)為，海上原油存儲將有助于填補(bǔ)這一空白?？歧晁箍死锼沟俑圩罱硎?，該港口可以支持浮式存儲。然而，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)浮式存儲容量有限，無法幫助解決最終在陸上發(fā)生的問題，”

儲存問題的核心是道路燃料需求的突然下降。估計,美國汽油需求將達(dá)到前所未有的330萬桶/天的降幅。

令人震驚的汽油需求暴跌，將迫使煉油商減產(chǎn)，在某些情況下，還將引發(fā)全面停產(chǎn)。Rystad估計，4月份美國煉廠日產(chǎn)量將減少380萬桶/天，至1260萬桶/天。墨西哥灣和西海岸的石油日產(chǎn)量分別減少了150萬桶和90萬桶。

王佳晶 摘譯自 油田技術(shù)

原文如下：

Rystad Energy: third of available crude storage capacity in the US will already be filled in April

The Covid-19 pandemic has demolished global oil demand and as producing countries continue to quarrel over output cuts, stocks are building by the day. At current filling rates, a third of available crude storage capacity in the US will already be filled in April, a Rystad Energy analysis shows. With additional oil coming, the largest production shut-ins in the country’s history are not far off.

Rystad Energy’s analysis shows that total commercial storage in the US stands at about 653.4 million bbl, or some 780 million bbl including pipeline fills and crude-in-transit. At the end of March, 469.2 million bbl of oil were already in stock.

Non-commercial storage, known as strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs), has the capacity to store 713.5 million bbl of crude and is already almost full, as it already contains 634.9 million bbl of crude. This implies remaining spare capacity of 389.8 million bbl or 29%, 311.8 million bbl of which is available for commercial stocks and 78.5 million bbl of which is available for SPRs.

“We currently estimate that commercial crude stocks might build by nearly 90 million bbl in April 2020 as refiners dramatically reduce runs and producers bring about 12.7 million bpd of supply,” said Rystad Energy’s senior oil market analyst Paola Rodriguez-Masiu.

Crude builds in April will reduce available crude capacity by a third, leaving, in theory, about 200 million bbl of storage capacity (or two more months at the same filling rate). In practice, available crude capacity might be closer to 150 million bbl.

In addition, storage is not equally available to all market participants; producers might struggle to access this capacity as most is located far from production sides, only reachable via pipelines. Pipeline operators are already restraining access to their systems because there is no buyer at the end-side. Also, a percentage of the available capacity is already locked in long-term lease agreements.

“Many market participants suggest that offshore crude storage will help fill the gap – the Port of Corpus Christi recently stated that the port can support floating storage. However, we find that floating storage capacity is limited and cannot help resolve what ultimately happens onshore,“ added Rodriguez-Masiu.

At the heart of the storage problem is the sudden drop in road fuels demand. With several states across the US mandating non-essential workers stay at home in order to halt the spread of the coronavirus outbreak, including states with the highest road fuel demand such as California and New York, we estimate that US gasoline demand is set to decline by an unprecedented 3.3 million bpd y/y in April 2020.

The astonishing gasoline demand collapse will push refiners to cut runs and, in some cases, will trigger shut-downs altogether. Rystad currently estimate that US refinery runs in April will fall by 3.8 million bpd y/y to 12.6 million bpd. The Gulf Coast accounts for 1.5 million bpd of the reduction and the West Coast for nearly 900 000 bpd.?