今年全球至少9口最重要探井面臨延遲開鉆

據(jù)今日石油2020年4月8日奧斯陸報(bào)道，雷斯塔能源公司日前發(fā)表的一份影響分析報(bào)告顯示，由于疫情影響和沙特與俄羅斯的油價(jià)戰(zhàn)對油氣活動的共同影響，今年全球至少有9口已計(jì)劃的最重要勘探井面臨延遲開鉆的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

這些已計(jì)劃的最重要勘探井位于挪威、巴西、巴哈馬、圭亞那、美國、岡比亞和納米比亞，目標(biāo)總儲量將在70億桶油當(dāng)量。

由于在目前的價(jià)格水平下，這些頂級探井的商業(yè)可行性、影響設(shè)備部件供應(yīng)的關(guān)閉、運(yùn)營商優(yōu)先考慮其他目標(biāo)以及作業(yè)人員行動受限制等原因，雷斯塔能源公司已確定暫停開鉆的頂級探井目前處于危險(xiǎn)之中。

雷斯塔能源公司國際上游分析師Palzor Shenga說：“考慮到當(dāng)前的全球形勢，我們現(xiàn)在預(yù)計(jì)，全球今年年底前累計(jì)發(fā)現(xiàn)量可能甚至?xí)陀?016年的89億桶油當(dāng)量，這是十年來的最低水平。這將完全取決于未來幾個(gè)月將有多少口關(guān)鍵初探井能夠開鉆?！?/span>

由于勘探商只發(fā)現(xiàn)了大約25億桶油當(dāng)?shù)男聝α浚衲甑谝患径鹊拈_局就不太理想。這22個(gè)發(fā)現(xiàn)平均分布在陸上和海上區(qū)域，其中天然氣發(fā)現(xiàn)數(shù)占了一半多一點(diǎn)。與去年同期相比，新發(fā)現(xiàn)儲量下降了大約40%，發(fā)現(xiàn)數(shù)幾乎減少了一半。

這家總部位于奧斯陸的能源研究公司表示：“當(dāng)我們進(jìn)入2020年的時(shí)候，雷斯塔能源公司相信全球發(fā)現(xiàn)的趨勢將會繼續(xù)上升，新發(fā)現(xiàn)儲量預(yù)計(jì)將會增加。然而，目前的全球市場形勢將給勘探作業(yè)帶來許多挑戰(zhàn)?！?/span>

雷斯塔能源公司表示，對地質(zhì)環(huán)境和地下復(fù)雜性的理解仍然沒有改變——在未來幾個(gè)月里，地面以上出乎意料的市場動蕩將發(fā)揮關(guān)鍵作用。

美國石油巨頭埃克森美孚公司7日宣布將資本支出削減30%，營運(yùn)支出削減15%。埃克森美孚公司表示，雖然圭亞那目前的海上生產(chǎn)業(yè)務(wù)仍未受到疫情和油價(jià)下跌的影響，但未來的活動可能會推遲。

李峻 編譯自 今日石油

原文如下：

Multi-billion-barrel wells facing delays in Guyana, US and elsewhere – Rystad Energy

At least nine of the world’s top planned exploration wells for 2020 are at risk of being suspended as a result of the combined effect on oil and gas activities of the COVID-19 virus and the oil price war, a Rystad Energy impact analysis shows.

These wells, located in Norway, Brazil, the Bahamas, Guyana, the US, Gambia and Namibia would target a combined 7 billion barrels of oil equivalents (boe).

The wells that Rystad Energy has identified as candidates for suspension are at risk because of their commercial viability under the current price levels, shutdowns that affect the supplies of equipment components, operators’ prioritization among other targets and limitations in crew movements, among other reasons.

“Given the prevailing global situation we now foresee that the cumulative discovered volumes by the end of the year could go even below the 2016 level of 8.9 billion boe, which was the decade’s lowest. This will solely depend upon how many key wildcat wells will still see a spinning drillbit in the coming months,” says Rystad Energy senior upstream analyst Palzor Shenga.

The first quarter of 2020 already started on a low note, as explorers have only uncovered new volumes of around 2.5 billion boe. The 22 discoveries are evenly split between onshore and offshore regions, with gas representing just over half of the volumes. Volumes are down about 40% from the same period of 2019, and the number of discoveries has almost halved.

“When we entered 2020, Rystad Energy believed that the global discovery trend would continue its upward trajectory with an expected increase in volumes. However, the current global market situation will bring many challenges to exploration,” the Norway-based energy research company said.

The understanding of the geological context and complexities of the subsurface remains unchanged – it is the unexpected market turmoil above the surface that will play the key role in the coming months, Rysatd Energy stated.

In announcing a 30 percent slash in CAPEX and a 15 percent cut in OPEX on Tuesday, US oil major ExxonMobil said while current production operations offshore Guyana remain unaffected by the COVID-19 pandemic and fall in oil prices, future activities can be delayed.