天然氣價格上漲或有助美國能源行業(yè)復(fù)蘇

據(jù)4月8日福布斯（Forbes）報(bào)道，當(dāng)今石油市場前途暗淡，難在其中找到“光明”。即使是本周歐佩克和20國集團(tuán)就供應(yīng)問題召開會議，石油市場都將面臨著漫長的道路要走，才能突破在疫情爆發(fā)前WTI原油交易每桶50美元左右的可能。

但是，越來越多的分析師和能源行業(yè)高管將天然氣市場視為美國生產(chǎn)者的解困的第一來源。美國生產(chǎn)商對低油價的反應(yīng)，包括關(guān)閉不盈利的油井和削減30％甚至50％的鉆井資本預(yù)算，都將對國內(nèi)天然氣產(chǎn)量和石油產(chǎn)量產(chǎn)生巨大影響。

美國大約有40％的天然氣產(chǎn)量是所謂的“伴生氣”，是石油開采的副產(chǎn)品。這意味著國內(nèi)原油產(chǎn)量的大幅下降也將導(dǎo)致天然氣產(chǎn)量的大幅下降。許多專家認(rèn)為，與石油相比，這可能會導(dǎo)致美國天然氣價格更快、更迅速地恢復(fù)。由于當(dāng)今空前的供應(yīng)過剩，美國可能需要幾年時間來消化目前積累的大量庫存。

多年來，美國天然氣價格一直供過于求。在疫情來臨之前，冬季是取暖燃料天然氣需求的高峰期，天然氣的交易價格低至2美元/MMBtu以下。由于疫情對工業(yè)需求的影響，導(dǎo)致價格跌至1.50美元，這是自1995年以來的最低水平。如今，紐約商品交易所（Nymex Henry Hub）的基準(zhǔn)價格仍然非常低，約為1.80美元/MMBtu。

但是投資者和交易者都將目光投向了未來，許多人認(rèn)為天然氣的前景更加光明。盡管美國獨(dú)立生產(chǎn)商在2020年的股價普遍下跌了50％以上，但天然氣生產(chǎn)商的表現(xiàn)要好得多。

實(shí)際上，美國最大的天然氣生產(chǎn)商EQT的股價今年以來略有上漲。考慮到疫情影響已在企業(yè)界廣泛傳播，這真是令人印象深刻。

舒曉玲 摘譯自 福布斯（Forbes）

原文如下：

Higher Natural Gas Prices Could Lead Recovery Of U.S. Energy Industry

It’s hard to find bright spots amid the doom and gloom in today’s oil markets. No matter what happens at the OPEC and G20 meetings later this week in terms of supply management, the oil market faces a long road back to breaking the mid $50-a-barrel range that WTI crude was trading at before the coronavirus outbreak.

But analysts and energy executives are increasingly looking to natural gas markets as a first source of relief for U.S. producers. American producers’ response to low crude prices, including shutting in uneconomic wells and slashing drilling capital budgets by 30 percent and even 50 percent, will have a dramatic effect on domestic natural gas output as well as oil.

Roughly 40 percent of U.S. gas production is so-called “associated gas,” a byproduct of drilling for oil. That means the sharp drop in domestic crude output will result in a significant reduction in gas production, too. And many experts think this could result in a faster, sharper recovery in prices for U.S. gas compared to oil, where it could take a couple years to work off the vast inventories that are now building due to today’s unprecedented supply surplus.

U.S. gas prices have been beset by oversupply for years. Before the coronavirus outbreak, natural gas traded at depressed levels below $2 per million British Thermal Units (MMBtu) during the heart of winter — peak demand season for the heating fuel. Concerns about the impact of coronavirus on industrial demand later took prices to the $1.50 level — a low not seen since 1995. Today, benchmark Nymex Henry Hub prices are still extremely low at around $1.80 per MMBtu.

But investors and traders are focused on the future and many see a much brighter outlook for the commodity. While U.S. independent producers have generally seen their share prices slashed by at least 50 percent in 2020, gas producers have fared much better.

Shares of EQT, the largest gas producer in America, actually show a slight year-to-date gain. That’s impressive considering the widespread carnage the coronavirus has unleashed on the corporate world.