減產(chǎn)協(xié)議光明隱現(xiàn) 油價(jià)繼續(xù)上漲

據(jù)4月9日Rigzone報(bào)道，由于全球需求不斷減少，全球主要產(chǎn)油國似乎將達(dá)成減產(chǎn)協(xié)議，油價(jià)延續(xù)了此前的漲勢。

紐約原油期貨價(jià)格周三上漲約4%，超過26美元/桶，此前俄羅斯表示準(zhǔn)備減產(chǎn)160萬桶/天，約占其總產(chǎn)量的15%。歐佩克輪值主席國阿爾及利亞的能源部長對該國國家通訊社表示，將于周四晚些時(shí)候舉行的歐佩克+會(huì)議將討論大規(guī)模的減產(chǎn)，或?qū)⑦_(dá)到1000萬桶/天。

20國集團(tuán)的能源部長們將在周五討論如何為達(dá)成協(xié)議而做出更廣泛的貢獻(xiàn)，美國的合作可能是啟動(dòng)歐佩克+供應(yīng)限制的關(guān)鍵。美國要求俄羅斯和沙特阿拉伯減少石油產(chǎn)量，并表示，由于油價(jià)暴跌導(dǎo)致美國石油產(chǎn)量下降，該國已“自動(dòng)”減產(chǎn)。

不過，莫斯科對美國的承諾仍持懷疑態(tài)度，這表明談判仍有破裂的可能。克里姆林宮發(fā)言人佩斯科夫(Dmitry Peskov)表示，俄羅斯不認(rèn)為需求下降或價(jià)格下降導(dǎo)致的供應(yīng)減少是真正意義上的減產(chǎn)。

隨著全球能源消耗的下降速度超出許多人的預(yù)期，低油價(jià)和高供給的情況或?qū)⒔Y(jié)束。全球第三大石油消費(fèi)國印度的石油需求暴跌了70%之多，隨著美國石油消費(fèi)量降至至少30年來的最低水平，美國一些大型煉油廠也面臨關(guān)閉危機(jī)。

截至倫敦時(shí)間上午7點(diǎn)30分，紐約商品交易所 5月份交割的西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油價(jià)格上漲4.2%，至每桶26.14美元，此前一個(gè)交易日的漲幅為6.2%。歐洲洲際交易所7月份交割的布倫特原油價(jià)格上漲1.9%，至每桶33.45美元，而周三收盤時(shí)上漲了3%。

盡管期貨市場有所上漲，但由于煉油廠削減加工率和購買量，現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格仍在下跌。北美內(nèi)陸地區(qū)的原油價(jià)格正不斷走低，巴肯(Bakken)地區(qū)的原油價(jià)格已跌至10美元以下，加拿大的石油價(jià)格也創(chuàng)下歷史新低。艾伯塔省省長肯尼(Jason Kenney)周二警告稱，油價(jià)出現(xiàn)負(fù)增長的可能性非常大。

接受彭博社訪問的26名分析師、交易員和煉油商中，25名都預(yù)測歐佩克和其他產(chǎn)油國將同意減產(chǎn)，平均來看，將減產(chǎn)850萬桶/天。雖然這是一個(gè)巨大的降幅，但與一些交易員估計(jì)的每天高達(dá)3500萬桶的需求損失相比，這個(gè)降幅仍然相形見絀。

高盛集團(tuán)的分析師達(dá)米恩?庫瓦林（Damien Courvalin）在4月8日的一份報(bào)告中表示，現(xiàn)在協(xié)調(diào)減產(chǎn)的可能性很大。不過，每天減少1000萬桶或許還不夠，因低油價(jià)還將增加400萬桶/天的減產(chǎn)量。

王佳晶 摘譯自 Rigzone

原文如下：

Oil Up With Producers Edging Toward Deal

Oil extended gains as the world’s top oil producers appeared to be moving closer to a deal to curb output in the face of deepening demand destruction being wrought by the coronavirus.

Futures in New York rose around 4% to above $26 a barrel after rallying Wednesday as Russia said it’s ready to cut by 1.6 million barrels a day, or about 15% of its total output. The OPEC+ meeting to be held later on Thursday will discuss a “massive output reduction, which may reach 10 million barrels a day,” the energy minister of Algeria, which holds OPEC’s rotating presidency, told his country’s state news agency.

G-20 energy ministers will then discuss broader contributions to any agreement on Friday, with U.S. cooperation likely key to unlocking the OPEC+ supply curbs. President Donald Trump has put huge diplomatic pressure on Russia and Saudi Arabia to reduce production, while saying America’s cut will happen “automatically” as plunging prices cause a pullback in output.

Moscow remains skeptical about the U.S. commitment, however, signaling that there’s still a chance negotiations will break down. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia doesn’t consider a supply reduction driven by falling demand or lower prices to be a real output cut.

The possible end of the Saudi-Russian price war just over a month after it started is happening as global energy consumption plummeted faster than many anticipated. Oil demand in India, the world’s third-biggest consumer, has collapsed by as much as 70% amid the world’s largest national lockdown, while some of America’s biggest refineries are facing closure after U.S. oil consumption fell to the lowest in at least three decades.

West Texas Intermediate for May delivery rose 4.2% to $26.14 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 7:30 a.m. in London after climbing 6.2% in the previous session. Brent for July delivery added 1.9% to $33.45 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange after closing up 3% on Wednesday.

Despite gains in the futures market, physical prices are still dropping as refineries cut processing rates and purchases. North American landlocked crudes are fetching ever lower prices, with grades in the Bakken region back beneath $10 and oil in Canada at a record low. Alberta Premier Jason Kenney warned on Tuesday that there’s a “very real possibility” of negative prices.

All but one of 26 analysts, traders and refiners surveyed by Bloomberg forecast that OPEC and other producers will agree to reduce output, with the average of their estimates at 8.5 million barrels a day. While that’s a vast decrease, it would still pale in comparison to the demand loss that some traders gauge is as much as 35 million barrels a day.

A coordinated output cut is now more likely than not, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts led by Damien Courvalin said in a note dated April 8. However, a 10 million barrel a day reduction wouldn’t be sufficient and would still require an additional 4 million barrels a day of price-induced shut-ins, they said.