天然氣市場危機四伏

據(jù)今日油價4月9日報道，天然氣已經(jīng)從石油生產(chǎn)的副產(chǎn)品變成了交通、工業(yè)和供暖的重要能源。技術(shù)進步助推其作為全球主要能源的發(fā)展進程。在此之前，輸氣管道基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和地理位置靠近天然氣產(chǎn)區(qū)是進口天然氣的必要條件。然而，隨著液化天然氣的發(fā)明和發(fā)展，即使是偏遠和難以到達的地區(qū)現(xiàn)在也可以使用這種燃料。全球各地液化和再氣化工廠的建設(shè)，為這個傳統(tǒng)上缺乏靈活性的行業(yè)注入了前所未有的流動性。

然而，由于天然氣價格在很長一段時間內(nèi)處于極低水平，目前天然氣市場正面臨重大危機。由于需求減少加上供應(yīng)過剩，讓天然氣市場危機四伏。在經(jīng)歷了連續(xù)兩個暖冬之后，天然氣行業(yè)已經(jīng)處于危險的境地，目前正在走向崩潰的邊緣。

通常情況下，該燃料是氣態(tài)的，這使得它比石油更難運輸。這也是為何管道總是運輸天然氣的首選方式的原因。盡管液化天然氣在一定程度上改變了這一局面，但世界上大多數(shù)天然氣仍是通過管道運輸?shù)摹?/span>

供應(yīng)和需求之間的平衡是脆弱的，因為相對于單一設(shè)施的平均產(chǎn)能，液化天然氣市場的規(guī)模相對較小。2018年液化天然氣市場規(guī)模約為320萬噸/年。相比之下，2019年等待最終投資決定的液化天然氣液化項目的產(chǎn)能在31萬噸至800萬噸之間。這意味著最大的項目將使全球生產(chǎn)能力增加10%。這個市場規(guī)模意味著供求保持平衡并不容易。

過去兩個供暖季節(jié)，北半球異常溫暖的天氣導(dǎo)致亞洲和歐洲的儲存相對充足。這大大抑制了需求，從而導(dǎo)致價格下降。

桑福德·伯恩斯坦公司(Sanford v. Bernstein)駐倫敦的分析師迪帕·文卡特斯瓦蘭(Deepa Venkateswaran)表示：“天氣對行業(yè)的影響已經(jīng)很大了。而需求危機又帶來了更嚴重的沖擊?！?/span>

此外，與石油市場不同，天然氣行業(yè)沒有一個“歐佩克”來影響價格。生產(chǎn)者無法協(xié)調(diào)生產(chǎn)水平來設(shè)定市場可接受的價格。

鄒勤 摘譯自 今日油價

原文如下：

Natural Gas Is Suffering On All Sides

Natural gas has gone from being a by-product of oil production to a vital source of energy for transportation, industry, and heating. Technological advancements have strengthened the fuel’s proliferation as a central energy source across the globe. Previously, pipeline infrastructure and geographic proximity to production areas were a necessity to import gas. However, with the invention and growth of LNG, even isolated and hard to reach regions can now use the fuel. The construction of liquefaction and regasification plants all over the world have injected previously unseen levels of liquidity into a traditionally inflexible sector.

The natural gas market today, however, is facing a major crisis due to very low prices for an extended period of time. A perfect storm is forming around the sector due to a combination of bad luck and oversupply. The gas industry was already in a precarious position after two consecutive mild winters, and now COVID-19 is pushing it to the brink of collapse.

The gaseous state of the fuel under normal circumstances makes it relatively difficult to transport compared to oil. Which is why pipelines were always the favored choice for transit purposes. Although LNG has somewhat transformed the situation, the majority of the world’s natural gas is still transported by pipelines.

The equilibrium between supply and demand is brittle due to the relatively small size of the LNG market compared to average production capacity at a single facility. The size of the LNG market in 2018 was approximately 320 mtpa. In comparison, LNG liquefaction projects in 2019 that were in line for a final investment decision had a capacity between 31 and 8 mtpa. This means that the biggest undertaking would add up to 10 percent to global production capacity. The size of this market means the pendulum swings fairly easy between undersupply, balance, and oversupply.

Unusually warm weather in the northern hemisphere during the past two heating seasons has led to relatively full storage in both Asia and Europe. This has significantly depressed demand and consequentially led to lower prices.

According to Deepa Venkateswaran, an analyst at Sanford v. Bernstein in London, "the impact of the weather was already significant. The coronavirus will take that to a much higher level."

Furthermore, unlike the oil market, the natural gas industry does not have an 'OPEC' to influence prices. Producers are not able to coordinate production levels to set prices that are acceptable for the market.