全球減產(chǎn)或有望 油價小幅上漲

據(jù)路透社4月7日倫敦報道，油價周二小幅升至正區(qū)間，因全球主要產(chǎn)油國將同意減產(chǎn)的希望蓋過了分析師對全球經(jīng)濟衰退可能比預期更嚴重的擔憂。

截至格林威治時間09:36，布倫特原油LCOc1上漲83美分，漲幅2.5%，至每桶33.88美元，周一跌幅超過3%。西德克薩斯中質原油(WTI)上漲95美分，至27.03美元，漲幅3.6%，前一交易日下跌近8%。

法國巴黎銀行分析師Harry Tchilinguirian在接受路透社全球石油論壇采訪時稱：“市場預期建立在每日減產(chǎn)1000萬桶或至少接近1000萬桶的基礎上，油價持穩(wěn)?！?/span>

消息人士對路透社表示，包括沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯在內的全球主要產(chǎn)油國預計將在周四的會議上同意減產(chǎn)，但這將取決于美國是否加入。

然而，在疫情對經(jīng)濟活動造成打擊后，嚴重衰退的威脅籠罩著市場，全球一半人口處于某種形式的封鎖或社會隔離措施之下。

全球石油需求下降了30%之多，與此同時，沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯在之前的一份產(chǎn)量協(xié)議破裂后，采取了向市場大量供應額外石油的舉措。

雷斯塔能源的Bjornar Tonhaugen表示：“4月和5月石油市場將分別出現(xiàn)每日2800萬桶和2100萬桶的供過于求，真正需要的全球協(xié)同減產(chǎn)量可能過大，產(chǎn)油國難以接受；也許是討論數(shù)字的兩倍?！?/span>

歐佩克和包括俄羅斯在內的其他產(chǎn)油國近年來一直在削減產(chǎn)量，盡管美國提高了自己的產(chǎn)量，成為世界上最大的原油生產(chǎn)國。

美國是否會加入任何限制供應的協(xié)調行動，這是個問題。

裘寅 編譯自 路透社

原文如下：

Oil rises as hopes build for global production cut

Oil prices clawed their way into positive territory on Tuesday as hopes that the world’s biggest producers will agree to cut output outweighed analyst fears that a global recession in the wake of the coronavirus crisis could be deeper than expected.

Brent crude LCOc1 was up 83 cents, or 2.5%, at $33.88 a barrel by 0936 GMT after falling more than 3% on Monday. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 was up 95 cents, or 3.6%, at $27.03, having dropped nearly 8% in the previous session.

“Oil prices are holding their ground with market expectations building on an agreement for an output reduction of 10 million barrels per day (bpd), or at least close to 10 million bpd,” BNP Paribas analyst Harry Tchilinguirian told the Reuters Global Oil Forum.

The world’s main oil producers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, are expected to agree to cut output at a meeting on Thursday, though that would depend on the United States joining in, sources told Reuters.

However, the threat of a major recession hangs over the market after the hit to economic activity as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, with half the global population under some form of lockdown or social distancing measures.

Worldwide oil demand has dropped by as much as 30%, coinciding with moves by Saudi Arabia and Russia to flood markets with extra supply after a previous output deal fell apart.

“With 28 million bpd of oversupply in the oil market in April and 21 million bpd in May, the global coordinated production cuts that are really needed may be too large for the producers to accept; perhaps twice as large as the numbers being discussed,” said Rystad Energy’s Bjornar Tonhaugen.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producers including Russia, a grouping known as OPEC+, had been curtailing production in recent years even as the United States ramped up its own output to become the world’s biggest crude producer.

There are questions whether the United States would join any coordinated action to curb supply.

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