俄羅斯在此次石油危機(jī)中或?qū)⒂懈帽憩F(xiàn)

據(jù)油田技術(shù)4月5日報(bào)道，一個(gè)月前，歐佩克+召開了非生產(chǎn)性會(huì)議，但未能達(dá)成任何一致協(xié)議。隨著全球市場石油需求的大幅削減，美國號(hào)召俄羅斯和沙特阿拉伯于2020年4月6日重返談判程序，討論減產(chǎn)至少1000萬桶/天的計(jì)劃。

該協(xié)議將有助于平衡需求缺口，使價(jià)格回到較有利可圖的水平，并有助于避免生產(chǎn)停滯。但這個(gè)計(jì)劃取決于石油生產(chǎn)商們愿意削減多少產(chǎn)量。

Rystad能源公司的一項(xiàng)研究表明，當(dāng)前形勢下，沙特阿拉伯在以下五個(gè)財(cái)務(wù)衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)上遭受的打擊將比俄羅斯更大:對(duì)石油和天然氣收入的影響、財(cái)政收支平衡價(jià)格、財(cái)政赤字和外匯儲(chǔ)備、預(yù)算赤字和國內(nèi)政策。

首先從對(duì)石油和天然氣收入的影響方面考慮。根據(jù)Rystad的基本假設(shè)，今年布倫特原油的平均價(jià)格為34美元/桶，2021年為44美元/桶，沙特阿拉伯今年的收入將比2019年減少一半，到2021年將恢復(fù)30%，達(dá)到近1350億美元。因此，以34美元/桶的油價(jià)計(jì)算，沙特阿拉伯在2020年將損失1050億美元的財(cái)政收入，如果油價(jià)降至20美元/桶，即使增加了石油產(chǎn)量，沙特阿拉伯今年將損失高達(dá)1500億美元。

同樣，俄羅斯的收入將在2020年下降47%，并在2021年恢復(fù)35%，達(dá)到1140億美元。按照34美元/桶的油價(jià)計(jì)算，俄羅斯今年的財(cái)政收入將減少約750億美元，而按照20美元/桶的油價(jià)計(jì)算，俄羅斯財(cái)政收入將減少1100億美元。在20美元/桶的情況下，俄羅斯的收入損失稍好于沙特阿拉伯，因?yàn)槎砹_斯天然氣行業(yè)收入占比更高。

王佳晶 摘譯自 油田技術(shù)

原文如下：

Rystad Energy: in OPEC+ poker game, Russia holds better cards than Saudi Arabia

A month after the last unproductive OPEC+ meeting and with Covid-19 slashing demand amid the ongoing price war, the US has managed to broker a new extraordinary meeting for oil-producing nations. Russia and Saudi Arabia will be back to the negotiating tele-table on 6 April 2020 to discuss the output cuts of at least 10 million bpd, first announced by US President Donald Trump on Twitter on 2 April 2020.

The deal would help balance the demand shortfall and bring prices back to more profitable levels and help avoid production shut-ins. The sticking point is how much each producer is willing to cut. But, in case of another deadlock between Russia and Saudi Arabia, which of the two oil majors is better positioned to withstand an extended oil price war with fewer losses?

A Rystad Energy research shows that Saudi Arabia will suffer a bigger hit than Russia in all the following five financial criteria examined: the impact on oil and gas revenues, fiscal breakeven price, fiscal deficit and foreign currency reserves, budget deficits and domestic policy.

Impact on oil and gas revenue

In Rystad's base-case scenario of an average oil price of US$34/bbl of Brent this year and US$44 next year, Saudi Arabia’s revenues will halve this year compared to 2019 before recovering by 30% to almost US$135 billion in 2021. As a result, at a US$34 oil price, the country will lose US$105 billion of revenues in 2020 – and in case of a US$20 oil price, Saudi Arabia will lose up to US$150 billion this year, even with the increase in production.

Similarly, Russia’s revenues will slump by 47% in 2020 and recover back by 35% in 2021 to US$114 billion. Russia will lose about US$75 billion in revenue this year at a US$34 oil price, while the revenue shortfall could be US$110 billion at a US$20 oil price. Russia would hold up better than Saudi Arabia in terms of revenue loss in a US$20/bbl scenario because it has a higher contribution from gas to overall revenues.?