IEA:歐佩克或無法挽救石油市場

據(jù)今日油價4月5日報道，國際能源署(IEA)的執(zhí)行主任表示，即使歐佩克+和世界上其他主要石油生產(chǎn)商同意實施每日1000萬桶的大幅減產(chǎn)，但由于需求遭到前所未有的破壞，它們也無法解決本季度全球出現(xiàn)的巨大庫存，而第二季全球石油庫存仍將增加1500萬桶/天。

由于全球經(jīng)濟放緩，4月石油需求較上年同期將減少2000萬桶/天，甚至可能更多。

本周早些時候，IEA表示，全球以前曾出現(xiàn)過一些石油危機，但“沒有一個像我們今天看到的那樣，對石油行業(yè)造成如此嚴重的沖擊”。這次沖擊之所以獨特，是因為通常的穩(wěn)定因素之一—消費者—無法發(fā)揮作用。因此，只要當前形勢持續(xù)，其它石油危機期間出現(xiàn)的需求增長“極不可能”出現(xiàn)。

與此同時，本周早些時候油價觸及18年來最低水平，歐佩克+和另一個產(chǎn)油國組織預計將就如何應對需求損失展開討論。

盡管美國號召將石油日產(chǎn)量削減1000萬桶，甚至可能是1500萬桶/天，但許多石油分析師仍然對能否達成減產(chǎn)協(xié)議并實施如此大規(guī)模的減產(chǎn)計劃持高度懷疑態(tài)度。

王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價

原文如下：

IEA: OPEC Can’t Save The Oil Market

Even if the OPEC+ group and other major oil producers in the world were to agree to deep production cuts, they would be unable to prevent what is sure to be an enormous global inventory build this quarter due to unprecedented demand destruction, Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), told Reuters on Friday.

As a result of restricted commuter travel, grounded flights, and economic slowdown, demand for oil in April is expected to drop by 20 million bpd year on year, and probably more.

Even if OPEC+ plus other producers were to discuss, agree to, and implement a collective cut of 10 million bpd, global oil inventories would still rise by 15 million bpd in the second quarter, the IEA’s chief told Reuters.

Earlier this week, the IEA said that the world has seen some oil shocks before, but “none has hit the industry with quite the ferocity we are witnessing today.”

The reason the shock is unique this time around, the IAE says, is because one of the usual stabilization factors, consumers, is unable to do its part. As billions of people around the world are still in lockdown, consumers are unable to react to falling prices like they usually do—by consuming more. So for as long as the pandemic lasts, boosts in demand that were seen during other oil shocks are “highly unlikely.”

Meanwhile, producers from the OPEC+ group and from another group are expected to discuss potential ways to react to the massive demand loss and the low oil prices that hit their lowest level in 18 years earlier this week.