二季度油價(jià)可能跌破20美元/桶

據(jù)CNBC網(wǎng)站4月6日消息，根據(jù)CNBC對30名策略師、分析師和交易員的調(diào)查，疫情引發(fā)的歷史性需求沖擊將在本季度加劇，削弱沙特阿拉伯、俄羅斯和美國等重量級(jí)產(chǎn)油國為大幅削減供應(yīng)而重新平衡市場所做出的任何協(xié)調(diào)努力。

不能排除上周出現(xiàn)的每桶20美元或以上的基準(zhǔn)原油期貨價(jià)格偶爾飆升的可能性，因?yàn)楦偁帉κ稚程匕⒗投砹_斯試圖扭轉(zhuǎn)一場破壞性的市場份額爭奪戰(zhàn)，并策劃一項(xiàng)全球供應(yīng)協(xié)議，該協(xié)議可能每天縮減1500萬桶原油，相當(dāng)于全球供應(yīng)量的10%左右。

看跌的預(yù)測者表示，有兩種力量將使第二季度的油價(jià)保持低迷–懷疑沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯將屈服于價(jià)格戰(zhàn)，并承諾在生產(chǎn)者集團(tuán)的歷史上進(jìn)行最大幅度的削減（有或沒有美國頁巖油生產(chǎn)商的參與）。以及隨著疫情影響，整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)嚴(yán)重程度不斷加劇，全球需求出現(xiàn)巨大下降，導(dǎo)致本季度出現(xiàn)供過于求。

由于需求幾乎陷于癱瘓，從新加坡到加勒比海的石油和燃料罐幾乎滿載-這是全球供過于求的鮮明證據(jù)。

馮娟 摘譯自 CNBC

原文如下：

Oil prices could plunge below $20 a barrel this quarter

A historic demand shock sparked by the coronavirus pandemic is set to worsen in the current quarter, undermining any coordinated effort by heavyweight producers Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United States to cut supply aggressively and rebalance the market, according to a CNBC survey of 30 strategists, analysts and traders.

Episodic spikes of $20 a barrel or more in benchmark crude oil futures of the type seen last week cannot be ruled out as rivals Saudi Arabia and Russia attempt to reverse a damaging battle for market share and engineer a global supply deal which could cut up to 15 million barrels a day, the equivalent of about 10% of global supply.

Bearish forecasters said two forces would keep oil prices depressed in the second quarter — skepticism that Saudi Arabia and Russia would relent in their price war and commit to the deepest cuts in the producer group’s history (with or without participation from U.S. shale producers) and a glut in the current quarter caused by a monumental collapse in global demand as the full economic severity of the global coronavirus pandemic unfolds.

With demand at near-paralysis, oil and fuel tanks from Singapore to the Caribbean are close to brimming - stark evidence of the global glut.