低油價對采礦業(yè)構(gòu)成挑戰(zhàn)

據(jù)4月1日ABN AMRO 報道，油價大幅下跌意味著，礦業(yè)公司的能源成本正在下降。在正常情況下，礦業(yè)部門不會抱怨較低的柴油價格和較低的能源成本。但目前的情況并不正常。畢竟，超額的供應(yīng)過剩將對該行業(yè)造成沉重打擊。此外，由于需求減弱，該行業(yè)面臨的挑戰(zhàn)只會只會變得更加嚴(yán)峻。

通常情況下，能源成本約占采礦總成本的15%。對于某些特定金屬礦石的開采來說，這一比例可能高達40%。礦業(yè)公司主要通過石油、煤炭和天然氣等化石燃料來滿足能源需求。這意味著，這些燃料價格的高度波動將導(dǎo)致成本的高度不可預(yù)測。

摩根士丹利大宗商品分析師計算出了這些成本在每種非貴金屬中的分布情況:“便宜的石油對礦商來說是福也是禍。例如，開采銅、鎳和鋅等金屬礦石的總成本中，柴油占了5%到10%。金屬冶煉的總能源成本對鋁和鎳來說尤其高。在這些金屬的精煉過程中，能源可以占到生產(chǎn)成本的30%到50%?！?/span>

更低的油價，意味著更低的能源成本。因此，油價大幅下跌導(dǎo)致運營成本大幅下降。由于金屬價格大幅下跌，這大大減輕了許多礦業(yè)公司的財務(wù)壓力。但這也有不利的一面。

降低運營成本往往是許多礦業(yè)公司維持甚至擴大生產(chǎn)的動力。這種繼續(xù)生產(chǎn)的動機最終將導(dǎo)致許多金屬市場出現(xiàn)供過于求的情況，尤其是在金屬需求正在減弱的情況下。長期而言，這可能導(dǎo)致金屬價格相對較低。

油價復(fù)蘇不會一帆風(fēng)順，因為需求減弱、庫存增加和供過于求將嚴(yán)重限制未來一段時期的價格上漲潛力。荷蘭銀行(ABN AMRO)預(yù)計，到2021年底，油價將達到50美元/桶。這意味著，相對較低的油價將繼續(xù)對采礦業(yè)構(gòu)成挑戰(zhàn)。

洪偉立 摘譯自 ABN AMRO

原文如下：

Low oil price challenges mining sector

The sharply lower oil price means that energy costs for mining companies are falling. Under normal circumstances, the mining sector wouldn’t complain about a lower diesel price and lower energy costs. But current circumstances are far from normal. After all, oversupply is looming and that will hit the sector hard. And with weaker demand for metals due to the coronavirus crisis, the sector’s problems will only increase.

On average, energy costs make up about 15% of total mining costs. This can rise to as much as 40% for the mining of some specific metal ores. Mining companies meet their energy needs largely from fossil fuels, such as oil, coal and gas. This means that highly volatile prices for these fuels lead to highly unpredictable costs.

The commodity analysts at Morgan Stanley have calculated how these costs are distributed per base metal (see: Mining Journal: ‘Cheap oil is a blessing and a curse for miners’, 18 March 2020). Diesel, for example, accounts for 5% to 10% of the total costs of mining metal ores such as copper, nickel and zinc. Total energy costs for the refining of metals are especially high for aluminium and nickel. In the refining of these metals, energy can account for 30% to 50% of production costs.

Lower oil price, lower energy costs

The sharply lower oil price has therefore led to a significant reduction in operating costs. This greatly reduces the financial stress for many mining companies, now that metal prices have fallen sharply. But there is a downside to this.

Lower operating costs are often an incentive for many mining companies to maintain or even expand production. This incentive to continue producing will eventually lead to oversupply in many metal markets, especially now that the demand for metals is weakening. And this could translate into relatively low metal prices in the longer term.

An oil price recovery will not go smoothly because weaker demand, larger stocks and oversupply will severely limit the upward price potential in the coming period. ABN AMRO expects the oil price to reach USD 50 per barrel at the end of 2021. This means that a relatively low oil price will continue to challenge the mining sector.