油價或?qū)?chuàng)歷史最大季度跌幅

據(jù)3月31日Rigzone報道，由于中國經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的跡象增強(qiáng)了市場需求反彈的希望，盡管油價仍將創(chuàng)下有史以來最糟糕的一個季度，但石油市場收復(fù)了一些損失。

盡管紐約期貨交易所在中國制造業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)強(qiáng)于預(yù)期后上漲5.1%，實(shí)現(xiàn)四個交易日來首次上漲，但自去年年底以來，由于需求減少和原油供應(yīng)過剩，油價仍下跌了65%。

高盛集團(tuán)預(yù)計(jì)，本周石油消費(fèi)量將下降2600萬桶，降幅達(dá)25%。需求下降已導(dǎo)致從南非到加拿大的煉油廠關(guān)閉，導(dǎo)致市場供過于求，而沙特阿拉伯正將大量原油運(yùn)往埃及，這個產(chǎn)油國正準(zhǔn)備向歐洲輸送大量原油。大量的供應(yīng)過剩正在摧毀石油市場結(jié)構(gòu)。隨著世界石油儲備能力的迅速耗盡，市場可能還會出現(xiàn)更多的疲軟。

倫敦時間8點(diǎn)07分，紐約商品交易所5月交割的西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油上漲1.02美元，至每桶21.11美元。周一，該合約下跌6.6%，至20.09美元/桶，為2002年2月以來的最低水平，本月油價下跌了53%。

倫敦洲際交易所5月份交割的布倫特原油期貨價格下跌3美分，至每桶22.73美元。該合約在3月份下跌了55%，本季度下跌了約66%。較為活躍的6月份合約價格上漲32美分，至26.74美元/桶。

全球布倫特基準(zhǔn)原油期貨出現(xiàn)了歷史性的供應(yīng)過剩嚴(yán)峻形勢。5月合約價格較11月合約折價逾14美元，這個溢價水平使人們對石油市場的預(yù)期比2008年和2009年全球金融危機(jī)時期更為悲觀。

市場上的原油現(xiàn)貨價格已經(jīng)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于期貨基準(zhǔn)價格。加拿大石油觸及3.82美元的歷史低點(diǎn)，而許多其他主要品級的石油交易價格低于10美元，有些甚至低至3美元。

先鋒自然資源公司(Pioneer Natural Resources Co.)和歐芹能源公司(Parsley Energy Inc.)已要求德克薩斯州監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)考慮減產(chǎn)，并在4月13日前召開緊急會議。德州鐵路委員會(Texas Railroad Commission)委員瑞安?西頓(Ryan Sitton)周一表示，將在下次會議上討論產(chǎn)量限制相關(guān)問題。

王佳晶 摘譯自 Rigzone

原文如下：

Oil Set for Worst Ever Quarter

Oil clawed back some losses as signs of a recovery in the Chinese economy bolstered hopes for a rebound in demand though prices are still headed for the worst quarter on record.

While New York futures rose for the first time in four sessions, adding 5.1% after stronger-than-anticipated China manufacturing data, oil is still down 65% since the end of December as demand vanishes and the market drowns in crude.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicting consumption will drop by 26 million barrels, or 25%, this week.

The slump in demand has shut refineries from South Africa to Canada, leading to a glut in the market, while Saudi Arabia is directing huge amounts of crude toward Egypt as the producer prepares to flood Europe with its barrels. The huge oversupply is collapsing the oil market’s structure, and there may be more weakness to come as the world quickly runs out of storage capacity.

West Texas Intermediate for May delivery added $1.02 to $21.11 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 8:07 a.m. London time. The contract slumped 6.6% to $20.09 on Monday, the lowest since February 2002. Prices are also down 53% this month.

Brent for May settlement, which expires Tuesday, fell 3 cents to $22.73 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract is down 55% in March and about 66% this quarter. The more-active June contract added 32 cents to $26.74.

Futures in the global Brent benchmark are suggesting a historic glut is emerging. The May contract is trading at a discount of more than $14 a barrel to November, a more bearish super-contango than the market saw even in the depths of the 2008-09 global financial crisis.

Crude prices are already far below those of futures benchmarks in the market for physical barrels. Oil from Canada touched a record low of $3.82, while many other key grades are trading below $10, with some as low as $3.

Pioneer Natural Resources Co. and Parsley Energy Inc. have asked Texas regulators to consider a cut to output and to call an emergency meeting no later than April 13. Ryan Sitton, one of three commissioners on the Texas Railroad Commission, said on Monday that the regulating body will discuss curbing production at its next meeting.