美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油前景不被看好

據(jù)今日油價(jià)3月30日?qǐng)?bào)道，隨著WTI原油價(jià)格預(yù)期會(huì)跌破20美元/桶，美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油前景繼續(xù)不被看好。隨著需求繼續(xù)萎縮，供應(yīng)過(guò)剩的情況可能會(huì)進(jìn)一步惡化。

3月初，一些預(yù)測(cè)人士表示，2020年石油需求可能略有下降，每日僅下降22萬(wàn)桶。一些預(yù)測(cè)人士則指出，到3月中旬，第二季度石油需求的降幅可能高達(dá)1000萬(wàn)桶/天。幾天后，另一組分析師預(yù)計(jì)降幅將達(dá)1300萬(wàn)桶-1400萬(wàn)桶/天。國(guó)際能源署上周警告稱，石油需求可能將減少2000萬(wàn)桶/天。

需求的削減可能還會(huì)繼續(xù)。周一中午交易時(shí)段，油價(jià)大幅下跌。

分析師們目前正在關(guān)注全球的石油存儲(chǔ)容量，這些容量最多可能在幾周或幾個(gè)月內(nèi)就會(huì)被填滿。布倫特原油5月至11月間的期貨溢價(jià)已升至每桶13.45美元的創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄水平，這反映出供應(yīng)大量過(guò)剩。

高盛(Goldman Sachs)預(yù)計(jì)，從現(xiàn)在到2020年第二季度，美國(guó)石油日產(chǎn)量將減少140萬(wàn)桶。不過(guò)，該銀行說(shuō)，目前鉆探速度的下降不一定會(huì)在今年第三季度前轉(zhuǎn)化為產(chǎn)量的下降。

但由于供過(guò)于求的情況如此嚴(yán)重，而且按目前的價(jià)格水平，庫(kù)存勢(shì)必會(huì)減少，這意味著價(jià)格最終將進(jìn)一步下跌。

上周，美國(guó)鉆井平臺(tái)數(shù)量減少了44個(gè)(40個(gè)石油鉆井平臺(tái)和4個(gè)天然氣鉆井平臺(tái))，為四年來(lái)最大降幅。值得注意的是，其中23個(gè)鉆井平臺(tái)位于二疊紀(jì)盆地。

洪偉立 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

原文如下：

Could Oil Really Fall To $0?

The outlook for U.S. shale continues to darken with WTI testing sub-$20 territory. The supply glut could grow worse as the contraction in demand continues to deepen.

In early March, a few forecasters suggested that oil demand may be slightly negative in 2020, dipping by a mere 220,000 bpd. The call was somewhat provocative at the time.

By the middle of the month, some forecasters said the demand hit could be as large as 10 million barrels per day (mb/d) in the second quarter. A few days later, another set of analysts put it at 13-14 mb/d. By last week, the IEA warned demand could fall by 20 mb/d.

The negative revisions could keep on coming. Oil prices dropped sharply during midday trading on Monday.

Analysts are now watching global storage capacity, which could fill up in weeks or months at most. The contango for Brent between May and November has widened to a record $13.45 per barrel, a reflection of the massive short-term glut.

Goldman Sachs sees U.S. oil production falling by 1.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) between now and the second quarter of 2020. However, the bank said that declines from lower drilling rates today wouldn’t necessarily translate into lower production until the third quarter of this year.

But because the glut is so gargantuan, and because storage is set to run low at current prices, that means that prices ultimately have to fall even further.

The U.S. rig count fell by 44 (40 oil rigs and 4 gas rigs) last week, the largest decrease in four years. Notably, the Permian basin accounted for 23 of those rigs.