近期石油市場價格底線難以預測

據3月29日福布斯（Forbes）報道，全球疫情對全球石油市場造成的空前破壞，使石油期貨價格創(chuàng)下了合約的兩位數(shù)折扣紀錄，全球代理基準布倫特原油價格在近期原油需求暴跌中首當其沖。

上周五（3月27日），5月份布倫特原油期貨合約收于每桶24.93美元，較11月的六個月遠期合約收盤價37.20美元每桶下跌12.27美元，折扣率為49.29％。

3月份以來油價下跌幅度持續(xù)擴大，導致了巨大的期貨溢價可能，即市場結構表明，石油價格應高于當前的實際價格的交易情緒處于2009年1月全球金融危機以來的最高水平。

在11年來的高點后，由于整個經濟體處于封鎖狀態(tài)，市場預測原油需求短期下降。根據國際能源署（IEA）的數(shù)據，2020年每天的石油需求可能會比其先前的每天約1億桶/日的預測減少五分之一。

所有這些都取決于在主要原油消費市場美國、印度、日本和韓國能否迅速控制疫情。

許多人特別擔心美國可能成為大流行的新震中，大流行目前正在打擊許多歐洲經濟體，尤其是意大利，法國和西班牙?，F(xiàn)在美國主要的經濟中心，例如加利福尼亞州，紐約州和德克薩斯州都處于封鎖狀態(tài)。

但目前的市場情緒表明，消費量在今年第三季度末和第四季度的大部分時間里將出現(xiàn)反彈，隨后在2021年將進一步上揚，這正是許多交易者所押注的，造成了許多人爭先恐后地搶占陸上和浮動儲油設施以囤積原油的期貨結構。

在過去的兩周中，北美陸上倉儲的價格翻了一番，而在利潤豐厚的中東至亞洲航線上，超大型原油運輸船（VLCC）形式的浮式儲存的租賃費率飆升了700%，達到平均每天30萬美元。

隨著石油輸出國組織崩潰導致的危機加劇，近期石油價格底線難以預測，包括國際能源署（IEA）在內的許多組織認為，需求增長可能會強勁反彈，并在2021年上升210萬桶/日。這正是許多人寄希望于創(chuàng)造創(chuàng)紀錄的持續(xù)息差的原因，即使目前的市場形勢合情合理。

舒曉玲 摘譯自 福布斯（Forbes）

原文如下：

Oil Futures In Record Contango Of Over $10 For First Time Since 2009

An unprecedented havoc unleashed on the global oil market by the coronavirus or Covid-19 pandemic has sent oil futures into record double-digit discounts to later contracts, with the global proxy benchmark Brent bearing the brunt of the near-term slump in crude demand.

On Friday (March 27), the Brent front-month contract for May, closed at $24.93 per barrel, -$12.27 or a 49.29% discount on the six-month forward contract for November that traded at around $37.20 per barrel over the same session.

The current price slump, that progressively deepened over the course of March, has resulted in a massive contango - i.e. a market structure indicative of trading sentiment in favor of oil prices being higher in the future compared to current prices - at levels unseen since the height of the global financial crisis in January 2009.

The 11-year contango highs follow market predictions of near-term declines in crude oil demand with whole economies in lockdown mode. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) oil demand could be a fifth less per day from its previous projection rate of around ~100 million barrels per day (bpd) for 2020.

All of it depends on how quickly, or not, the coronavirus pandemic is brought under control in key crude consuming markets of U.S., India, Japan and South Korea – all which seem to be gripped by the pandemic.

Many fear the U.S. in particular could be the new epicenter of the pandemic that's currently crippling many European economies, especially those of Italy, France and Spain. Now major U.S. economic heartlands such as the states of California, New York and Texas are in lockdown.

But current market sentiment points to a bounce in consumption at the end of third quarter and for much of the fourth quarter of this year, with a further uptick in 2021 to follow. That's what many traders are betting on, creating the contango structure with many rushing to grab onshore and floating storage to hoard crude.

Prices for onshore storage in North America have doubled over the last fortnight, while lease rates for floating storage in the shape of Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) have jumped by a stupendous 700% to an average of $300,000 per day in some cases on the lucrative Middle East to Asia routes.

As oil prices struggle to find a near-term floor with the crisis exacerbated following the collapse of OPEC+, many including the IEA suggest demand growth could bounce back strongly and rise by 2.1 million bpd in 2021. It's what many are pinning their hopes on leading to record contango spreads, even if the current market situation has some way to run.