3月向歐洲交付的LNG總量觸新高

據(jù)Oil & Gas Journal網(wǎng)站3月27日?qǐng)?bào)道 預(yù)計(jì)3月份對(duì)歐洲的液化天然氣總交付量將達(dá)到近1100萬噸，較2019年12月創(chuàng)下的月度紀(jì)錄增長14%。對(duì)歐洲的持續(xù)供應(yīng)推動(dòng)正值天然氣需求以兩位數(shù)的速度崩潰之際。

創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的液化天然氣供應(yīng)量將可能擴(kuò)大歐盟天然氣庫存，而歐盟天然氣庫存已經(jīng)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于歷史平均水平，并對(duì)已經(jīng)處于歷史低點(diǎn)的價(jià)格造成進(jìn)一步的下行壓力。不過，這將是歐洲進(jìn)口額第一次接近甚至超過韓國和日本一個(gè)月內(nèi)進(jìn)口總額。

IHS Markit全球天然氣首席策略師邁克爾·斯托帕德表示：“向歐洲輸送液化天然氣的記錄是疫情對(duì)需求影響的多米諾骨牌效應(yīng)。亞洲買家正在轉(zhuǎn)售從美國購買的大宗商品，而投資組合賣家也在卸下多余的貨物。這一切發(fā)生在歐洲天然氣市場已經(jīng)陷入極度困境之際?！?/span>

由于一些亞洲買家轉(zhuǎn)售其在美國的貨物，而投資組合賣家將其多余的貨物卸載至比利時(shí)、英國和法國，西北歐的進(jìn)口有所增加。預(yù)計(jì)到本月底，英國和法國的進(jìn)口量將分別達(dá)到200萬噸左右，而比利時(shí)可能已經(jīng)裝卸了100多萬噸。與此同時(shí)，地中海東部地區(qū)的買家在整個(gè)冬季都在吸收大量現(xiàn)貨，他們的進(jìn)口有放緩的跡象。

據(jù)IHS稱，歐洲將于下個(gè)月夏季開盤，常規(guī)庫存將創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄，需求預(yù)計(jì)將下降。隨著歐洲大陸受到COVID-19的影響，短期需求預(yù)計(jì)在未來幾周內(nèi)大幅下降。

截至3月25日，歐盟和英國的地下儲(chǔ)存設(shè)施已滿55%，比5年歷史平均水平高出21個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。西北歐的液化天然氣庫存略高于50%，但沒有跡象表明，隨著液化天然氣大量涌入西北歐，供應(yīng)量有所下降。隨著產(chǎn)能持有者在各碼頭之間進(jìn)行貨物運(yùn)輸，西北歐和西班牙碼頭之間的部分運(yùn)量正在不斷重新分配。同時(shí)，管道供應(yīng)也面臨壓力，俄羅斯2月份的管道流量已經(jīng)同比下降16%。

隨著歐洲吸收了越來越多的液化天然氣現(xiàn)貨，儲(chǔ)存已經(jīng)開始凈注入，與去年同期相比，管道供應(yīng)已經(jīng)在減少。提前加倉將進(jìn)一步打壓三季度和冬季的交貨價(jià)格。

“這種前所未有的歐洲液化天然氣供應(yīng)激增，肯定會(huì)造成連鎖反應(yīng)。庫存將比正常情況提前增加，這將給第三季度和冬季交貨月份的價(jià)格帶來額外的下行壓力，這是一個(gè)連鎖反應(yīng)?！?/span>

吳恒磊 編譯自 Oil & Gas Journal

原文如下：

IHS Markit: LNG deliveries to Europe to reach all-time high in March

Total LNG deliveries to Europe in March are expected to reach nearly 11 million tonnes, a 14% hike from the previous monthly record set in December 2019. The ongoing supply push into Europe comes just as gas demand is collapsing at double digit rates.

“The record influx of LNG deliveries will likely swell EU gas storage—which are already well above historic averages—and put further downward pressure on prices that are already at historical lows. Nevertheless, it will be the first time that Europe’s imports are nearly equivalent to, or even greater than, the amount South Korea and Japan combined import in a month.”

“The record in LNG deliveries to Europe is a domino effect from the demand impacts of the coronavirus pandemic. Asian buyers are reselling volumes purchased from the US and portfolio sellers are offloading their excess cargoes as well. This all comes as European gas markets are already in extreme distress,” said Michael Stoppard, chief strategist, global gas, IHS Markit.

Northwest Europe has increased imports as some Asian buyers resell their US volumes and portfolio sellers offload their excess cargoes into Belgium, UK, and France. Imports into the UK and France are scheduled to be around 2 million tonnes each by the end of the month, while over 1 million tonnes could have discharged in Belgium. Meanwhile, Eastern Mediterranean buyers that had been absorbing large spot volumes through the winter are showing signs of slowing down their imports.

According to IHS, Europe will start summer next month with record conventional storage levels and an expected drop in demand. Short-term demand is expected to decrease substantially in the coming weeks as the continent takes the hit from the consequences of COVID-19.

EU and UK underground storage facilities were 55% full as of Mar. 25, 21 points above the 5-year historical average. LNG inventories in Northwest Europe stood slightly above 50%, with no signs of send-out abating as volumes surge into Northwest Europe (OGJ Online, Mar. 27, 2020). Some volumes are increasingly being redistributed between Northwest European and Spanish terminals as capacity holders juggle deliveries between terminals. Pipeline supplies are also coming under pressure, with Russian pipeline flows already down 16% year-over-year in February.

As Europe absorbs increasing LNG arrivals, storage has begun net injections and pipeline supply is already reducing compared to this point last year. Early storage fill will further pressure the third quarter and winter delivery prices.

“This unprecedented surge of LNG supply to Europe is certain to cause knock-on effects. Storage inventories will build up earlier than normal and that will put additional downward pressure on prices in the third quarter and winter delivery months. It is a chain reaction.”