世界石油儲(chǔ)備空間瀕臨耗盡的邊緣

據(jù)能源世界網(wǎng)3月28日報(bào)道，據(jù)一位行業(yè)顧問稱，世界將在短短三個(gè)月內(nèi)耗盡石油儲(chǔ)備空間。

市場研究機(jī)構(gòu)IHS Markit表示，當(dāng)前的供求率意味著庫存量將在今年上半年增加18億桶。由于目前估計(jì)尚有16億桶的儲(chǔ)存能力，生產(chǎn)商將被迫減產(chǎn)，因?yàn)榈?月，多余的原油將無處可放。

由于疫情影響造成的需求下降，石油市場受到了沉重的打擊，在沙特與俄就石油減產(chǎn)問題談判破裂后，沙特發(fā)誓以大幅折扣的價(jià)格向市場注入原油。巴基斯坦周四禁止進(jìn)口原油和燃料，因?yàn)槠鋬?chǔ)存場所已滿。世界上頂級的兩家貿(mào)易商Vitol和Gunvor集團(tuán)表示，他們對儲(chǔ)存石油有很大的興趣，而且有幾家貿(mào)易商已經(jīng)預(yù)訂了超級油輪在海上囤積石油。

IHS稱，第二季度日供應(yīng)可能超過需求1240萬桶，其他交易員、銀行和顧問也預(yù)測會(huì)出現(xiàn)巨額盈余。Vitol周三表示，需求比去年下降了多達(dá)2000萬桶。

IHS石油市場主管吉姆·伯克哈德（Jim Burkhard）表示，生產(chǎn)將不得不減少甚至關(guān)閉。

目前的價(jià)格已經(jīng)有跡象表明潛在的存儲(chǔ)空間不足。在美國，所謂的WTI現(xiàn)金交易量跌至2008年12月以來的最低水平,預(yù)計(jì)在未來幾周和幾個(gè)月內(nèi)，美國期貨交付點(diǎn)的庫存將激增。

布倫特原油期貨交易深入到一個(gè)期貨溢價(jià)狀態(tài)中，即現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格低于以后幾個(gè)月的期貨價(jià)格。當(dāng)市場試圖通過對短期價(jià)格施壓來創(chuàng)造必要的金融手段激勵(lì)儲(chǔ)存原油時(shí)，現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格在未來幾個(gè)月內(nèi)與那些價(jià)格相折扣。因?yàn)槭袌鲈噲D通過對短期價(jià)格施加壓力來創(chuàng)造必要的財(cái)務(wù)激勵(lì)措施來進(jìn)行存儲(chǔ)。

對現(xiàn)貨市場實(shí)際原油桶數(shù)的衡量也顯示出全球疲軟。

IHS表示，世界三大產(chǎn)油國中，俄羅斯擁有最少的存儲(chǔ)空間，約8天的量。沙特有18天，美國有30天。 這些數(shù)字是基于如果出口減少后可以儲(chǔ)存的產(chǎn)量。

非洲最大的生產(chǎn)國尼日利亞，在IHS衡量的地區(qū)中存儲(chǔ)空間最少。IHS表示，估計(jì)今年年第一季度的日產(chǎn)量為190萬桶，將在1/2至2天內(nèi)填滿當(dāng)?shù)乜捎玫拇鎯?chǔ)空間。

咨詢顧問Energy Aspects Ltd.也預(yù)計(jì)在接下來的幾個(gè)月中會(huì)填滿儲(chǔ)罐。

該公司表示，隨著歐佩克將產(chǎn)量推高至紀(jì)錄高位，庫存將很快失去控制。我們將在今年第三季度耗盡原油儲(chǔ)存空間，將要更早實(shí)施產(chǎn)量遏制。

郝芬 譯自 能源世界網(wǎng)

原文如下：

The World’s on the brink of running out of places to store oil

The world will run out of places to store oil in as little as three months, according to an industry consultant.

IHS Markit said that current rates of supply and demand mean inventories will increase by 1.8 billion barrels over the first half of 2020. With only an estimated 1.6 billion barrels of storage capacity still available, producers will be forced to cut output because by June there’ll be no place left to put the unwanted crude, it said.

The oil market has been hammered by falling demand as a result of the coronavirus outbreak, and as Saudi Arabia vows to flood the market with crude at deep discounts, following the collapse of the coalition of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia. On Thursday, Pakistan banned imports of crude and fuels because its storage sites are full. Vitol Group and Gunvor Group, two of the world’s top merchants, say there’s heavy interest in storing while several traders have booked supertankers to hoard barrels at sea.

Supply may exceed demand by 12.4 million barrels a day in the second quarter, with other traders, banks and consultants also forecasting bumper surpluses, IHS said. Vitol said on Wednesday that demand has fallen as much as 20 million barrels a day from last year.

“Production is going to have to be reduced or even shut in,” said Jim Burkhard, head of oil markets at IHS.

There are already signs in prices about a potential scarcity of storage space. In the U.S, the so-called WTI cash roll traded down at the lowest level since December 2008 on expectations that inventories at the delivery point for US futures would balloon in coming weeks and months.

Brent futures are trading deep in a contango structure where spot prices are at discount to those in later months as the market tries to create the necessary financial incentives to store by pressuring near-term prices.

Measures of the physical market for actual barrels of crude are also pointing to weakness globally.

Of the world’s three largest oil producers, Russia has the least amount of available storage capacity at about eight days, IHS said. Those figures are based on the amount of production that could be stored if exports dried up. Saudi Arabia has 18 days, and the US has 30.

Nigeria, the biggest producer in Africa, is the most vulnerable among the areas measured by IHS. Estimated first-quarter 2020 daily production of 1.9 million barrels a day would fill up available local storage in 1/2 to two days, the firm said.

Consultant Energy Aspects Ltd. also sees storage tanks filling in the coming months.

“With OPEC pushing output to record highs, inventories will quickly get out of hand,” the firm said in a note. “We will run out of crude storage capacity by early Q3 20, with product containment arriving earlier.”