美國天然氣期貨價格下滑

據(jù)天然氣加工網(wǎng)站3月27日消息 周五，美國天然氣期貨價格下跌3%，因預(yù)計兩周內(nèi)天氣將轉(zhuǎn)暖，取暖需求將減少低于此前預(yù)期。

紐約商品交易所4月份交割的天然氣期貨價格在美國東部時間上午8點53分（格林尼治標(biāo)準(zhǔn)時間12：53）下跌2.4美分，至1.613美元/每百萬英熱單位，跌幅1.5%。周一，該合約收于1.602美元/每百萬英熱單位，為1995年9月以來的最低水平。5月份期貨價格下跌約1.8%，至1.66美元/每百萬英熱單位。

本周期貨價格上漲約1%，上周下跌約14%。放眼未來，2020年晚些時候和2021年的價格大多將上漲，因為預(yù)期隨著經(jīng)濟增長的恢復(fù)，需求將再次開始上升，因為在疫情減緩后，各國政府將放松旅行限制。

11月的期貨溢價高于10月，達(dá)到2010年8月以來的最高水平，而2021年的期貨溢價則在至少一年內(nèi)首次超過2025年。甚至在疫情開始削減全球經(jīng)濟增長和能源需求之前，天然氣的交易量就已經(jīng)接近多年來的最低水平，因為創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的產(chǎn)量和數(shù)月的溫和天氣使得公用事業(yè)公司能夠儲存更多的天然氣，這使得今年冬天不太可能出現(xiàn)燃料短缺和價格飆升的情況。

由于預(yù)計下周天氣將轉(zhuǎn)暖，4月初將再次降溫，數(shù)據(jù)提供商Refinitiv預(yù)計，美國48個州（包括出口）的天然氣需求將從本周的平均1051億立方英尺/天下滑至下周的982億立方英尺/天，然后在兩周內(nèi)升至1019億立方英尺/天。這低于Refinitiv周四預(yù)測的本周1053億立方英尺/天和下周的995億立方英尺/天。根據(jù)Refinitiv的數(shù)據(jù)，流向美國液化天然氣出口工廠的天然氣量從周三的91億立方英尺/天降至周四的90億立方英尺/天。相比之下，上周的平均值為81億立方英尺/天，1月31日的日最高值為95億立方英尺/天。

吳恒磊 編譯自 天然氣加工

原文如下：

U.S. natgas futures ease with oil price slide, lower demand next week

U.S. natural gas futures eased on Friday with a 3% decline in oil prices and on forecasts for milder weather and less heating demand next week than previously expected despite an outlook calling for cooler weather and more heating demand in two weeks.

On its last day as the front-month, gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 2.4 cents, or 1.5%, to $1.613 per million British thermal units at 8:53 a.m. EDT (1253 GMT). On Monday, the contract closed at $1.602, its lowest since September 1995. May futures, which will soon be the front-month, were down about 1.8% at $1.66 per mmBtu.

For the week, the front-month was up about 1% after falling about 14% last week. Looking ahead, prices later in 2020 and 2021 were mostly trading higher on expectations demand will start to rise again with the return of economic growth as governments loosen travel restrictions after the coronavirus spread slows.

The premium of futures for November over October rose to its highest since August 2010, while calendar 2021 swung to a premium over calendar 2025 for the first time in at least a year. Even before the coronavirus started to cut global economic growth and demand for energy, gas was already trading near its lowest in years as record production and months of mild weather enabled utilities to leave more gas in storage, making fuel shortages and price spikes unlikely this winter.

With the weather expected to warm next week before cooling again in early April, data provider Refinitiv projected gas demand in the U.S. Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from an average of 105.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 98.2 bcfd next week before rising to 101.9 bcfd in two weeks. That is lower than Refinitiv's forecast on Thursday of 105.3 bcfd this week and 99.5 bcfd next week. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants eased to 9.0 bcfd on Thursday from 9.1 bcfd on Wednesday, according to Refinitiv. That compares with an average of 8.1 bcfd last week and an all-time daily high of 9.5 bcfd on Jan. 31.