Vitol稱石油日需求或?qū)ⅢE降2000萬(wàn)桶

據(jù)今日油價(jià)3月25日?qǐng)?bào)道，世界最大石油貿(mào)易商Vitol首席執(zhí)行官拉塞爾·哈迪（Russell Hardy）在接受彭博社采訪時(shí)表示，石油需求的急劇變化，加上產(chǎn)量的意外增加，顛覆了整個(gè)行業(yè)。

在未來(lái)幾周內(nèi)，石油需求在高峰時(shí)可能會(huì)驟降1500萬(wàn)—2000萬(wàn)桶。 Hardy表示，按年計(jì)算，這將導(dǎo)致需求下降500萬(wàn)桶/日。

維托爾首席執(zhí)行官表示，就我們以前必須處理的任何事情而言，這都是相當(dāng)巨大的。

更多的壞消息也來(lái)了。印度下令在全國(guó)范圍內(nèi)實(shí)施社交隔離，以應(yīng)對(duì)新的病例激增，這一點(diǎn)很難引起人們的注意，這將轉(zhuǎn)化為石油需求的進(jìn)一步下降，并因此而大幅下降。

當(dāng)彭博社(Bloomberg)問及油價(jià)將發(fā)展到什么地步，哈代指出，石油和石油產(chǎn)品的產(chǎn)量比世界所能消耗的要多，因此美國(guó)、歐洲和印度的庫(kù)存將會(huì)增加，煉油廠將會(huì)減少產(chǎn)量。

他表示，到目前為止，日削減量約為700萬(wàn)桶。

即便如此，存儲(chǔ)空間將填滿，尤其是對(duì)于石油產(chǎn)品。 盡管原油還有一定的自由產(chǎn)能，但存儲(chǔ)空間可能會(huì)很快裝滿，從而給價(jià)格帶來(lái)更多壓力。

石油分析公司OilX于本周早些時(shí)候計(jì)算出，全球儲(chǔ)存的原油約有7.5億桶，分析師預(yù)計(jì)這一數(shù)字將增至10億桶。

雖然他拒絕提出布倫特和西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油的具體價(jià)格，但Vitol的Hardy表示，這兩個(gè)基準(zhǔn)在未來(lái)幾周內(nèi)可能會(huì)進(jìn)一步下降，因?yàn)樘幱诜怄i狀態(tài)的國(guó)家正在著手解決新的遠(yuǎn)程工作現(xiàn)實(shí)，這一現(xiàn)實(shí)正在使全球石油需求大幅減少。

在撰寫本文時(shí)，布倫特原油交易價(jià)格為每桶28.84美元，WTI原油交易價(jià)格為每桶23.49美元，較周二收盤價(jià)均下跌。

郝芬 譯自 今日油價(jià)

原文如下：

World’s Largest Oil Trader Says Demand Could Plummet By 20 Million Bpd

A dramatic change in oil demand coupled with an unexpected increase in production has upended the industry, Vitol’s chief executive Russell Hardy told Bloomberg in an interview.

At its peak, oil demand could slump by 15 to 20 million bpd over the next few weeks. On an annual basis, Hardy said, this would contribute to a demand decline of 5 million bpd.

“It’s pretty huge in terms of anything we’ve had to deal with before,” Vitol’s chief executive said.

More bad news is coming, too. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi just ordered a nationwide lockdown in response to a spike in new coronavirus cases, which, hardy noted, will translate into a further decline in oil demand, and a substantial one, at that.

Asked by Bloomberg about where oil prices will be going from here, Hardy noted that more oil and oil products were being churned out than the world can consume, so stockpiles in the U.S., Europe, and India will rise, with refineries cutting output.

So far, he said, the cuts amount to about 7 million bpd.

Even so, storage is filling up, especially for oil products. While there is some free capacity yet for crude oil, it will likely fill up fast, putting additional pressure on prices.

Oil analytics firm OilX earlier this week calculated there are about 750 million barrels of crude in storage globally, with analysts expecting this to rise to as much as 1 billion barrels.

While he declined to suggest a specific price for Brent and West Texas Intermediate, Vitol’s Hardy said that both benchmarks were likely to fall further over the next few weeks as countries on lockdown come to grips with the new remote-work reality that is taking a substantial chunk out of global oil demand.

At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $28.84 a barrel, with WTI at $23.49 a barrel, both down from Tuesday’s close.