加拿大西部石油減產(chǎn)迫在眉睫

據(jù)Oil & Gas Journal網(wǎng)站3月24日?qǐng)?bào)道 雷斯塔能源表示，由于Covid-19病毒造成的全球供過(guò)于求以及油價(jià)持續(xù)上漲，加拿大西部的石油產(chǎn)量將需要從4月份開始削減約11%，即44萬(wàn)桶/天。該國(guó)的可用存儲(chǔ)容量將在幾天內(nèi)耗盡。

加拿大西部的存儲(chǔ)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的最大存儲(chǔ)容量為4000萬(wàn)桶。根據(jù)雷斯塔能源的計(jì)算，已經(jīng)有超過(guò)3000萬(wàn)桶的原油和稀釋瀝青儲(chǔ)存在倉(cāng)庫(kù)中，根據(jù)目前的生產(chǎn)預(yù)計(jì)，到3月底原油和稀釋瀝青的儲(chǔ)量可能接近產(chǎn)能的高端。

因此，加拿大西部的石油產(chǎn)量將需要削減44萬(wàn)桶（雷斯塔能源預(yù)計(jì)在疫情爆發(fā)前達(dá)到400萬(wàn)桶/天），以平衡當(dāng)?shù)丶s3500萬(wàn)桶的儲(chǔ)存量。這意味著鐵路出口的原油將至少減少75%，至10萬(wàn)桶/天。

2019年第二季度，加拿大西部石油產(chǎn)量約394萬(wàn)桶/天。

雷斯塔能源高級(jí)分析師Thomas Liles表示：“今年鐵路出口原油大幅減少，以及幾個(gè)重要油砂開采項(xiàng)目推遲春季維護(hù)，這幾乎是必然的，使情況更加復(fù)雜?！?/span>

3月11日，艾伯塔省省長(zhǎng)杰森肯尼提出了減產(chǎn)的可能性，但省政府尚未正式宣布減產(chǎn)。如果出現(xiàn)政府政策導(dǎo)向的減產(chǎn)，這可能會(huì)適用于最大的運(yùn)營(yíng)商（就像2019年政府強(qiáng)制的減產(chǎn)一樣），但由于冠狀病毒相關(guān)的人員配備問(wèn)題和需求不足，一些運(yùn)營(yíng)商可能會(huì)自行減產(chǎn)。

到目前為止，大多數(shù)運(yùn)營(yíng)商對(duì)近期的減產(chǎn)問(wèn)題都沒有表態(tài)，不過(guò)一些主要運(yùn)營(yíng)商已經(jīng)下調(diào)了全年的生產(chǎn)指導(dǎo)值。

加拿大也在其東海岸的紐芬蘭和拉布拉多近海生產(chǎn)石油，3月22日赫斯基能源公司報(bào)告稱，為防止疫情擴(kuò)散，其West White Rose擴(kuò)建工程已暫停施工。

吳恒磊 編譯自 Oil & Gas Journal

原文如下：

Oil production cuts in Western Canada are imminent

Western Canada’s oil production will need to be cut by about 11% from April, or 440,000 b/d, due to the global oversupply created by the Covid-19 virus and ongoing oil price, said Rystad Energy. The country will run out of available storage capacity in days.

Western Canada’s storage infrastructure has a generally accepted maximum storage capacity of 40 million bbl. More than 30 million bbl of crude oil and diluted bitumen is already held in storage, by Rystad Energy calculations, and the volume is likely to edge towards the high end of capacity by the end of March under current production assumptions.

As a result, Western Canada’s oil production, which Rystad Energy expected to reach some 4 million b/d in its pre-coronavirus estimate, will need to be cut by a total of 440,000 bbl to balance local storage volumes around 35 million bbl. This incorporates at least a 75% reduction in crude-by-rail exports to 100,000 b/d.

In the second quarter of 2019, Western Canada’s oil production amounted to about 3.94 million b/d.

“Compounding the situation is the near-certainty of a steep reduction in crude-by-rail exports this year, as well as deferral of spring maintenance at several key oil sands mining projects,” said Thomas Liles, senior analyst at Rystad Energy.

On Mar. 11, Alberta Premier Jason Kenney raised the possibility of production curtailments, but reductions have not yet been officially announced by the provincial government. If government policy-directed cuts occur, they will likely apply to the biggest operators (as was the case for government-mandated curtailments in 2019), but some operators may cut production on their own as well due to coronavirus-related staffing issues and demand insufficiency.

So far, most operators have not been vocal on the issue of near-term cuts, although some of the major players have revised full-year production guidance downwards.

Canada also produces oil offshore Newfoundland and Labrador on its east coast, where on Mar. 22 Husky Energy reported the suspension of construction activities at its West White Rose expansion to prevent the spread of Covid-19.