全球原油供應(yīng)過剩情況不容樂觀

據(jù)3月23日Rigzone報(bào)道，由于歐佩克和德克薩斯州之間減產(chǎn)協(xié)議未能達(dá)成，而美國的救助計(jì)劃也被迫延遲，油價(jià)跌至2003年以來最低水平。

倫敦原油期貨價(jià)格下跌約4%，至每桶26美元左右，西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油期貨4月份合約價(jià)格在于上周五到期后上漲。德州鐵路委員會(huì)專員萊恩?西頓(Ryan Sitton)罕見地受邀參加了上周五召開的歐佩克 6月會(huì)議，但僅數(shù)小時(shí)后，他限制產(chǎn)量的呼吁就遭到監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)和鉆探商的拒絕，達(dá)成協(xié)議的希望開始破滅。

克里姆林宮分析人士稱，在石油需求前景迅速變得暗淡的情況下，邊緣政策正在進(jìn)行。一些交易員認(rèn)為，原油需求每天暴跌高達(dá)1000萬至2000萬桶。

Axicorp Ltd.首席亞洲市場(chǎng)策略師Stephen Innes稱，如果歐佩克和德州不能就減產(chǎn)達(dá)成協(xié)議，油價(jià)可能很快降至10-15美元/桶。任何有能力儲(chǔ)存石油的交易商可能都在觀望期貨溢價(jià)。

截至7點(diǎn)37分，倫敦洲際交易所5月份交割的布倫特原油期貨價(jià)格下跌3.9%，至每桶25.93美元。此前曾跌至24.68美元/桶。這低于周三24.88美元/桶的收盤價(jià)，后者是2003年5月12日以來的最低水平。

紐約商品交易所5月份交割的西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油期貨價(jià)格上漲1%，至每桶22.66美元，此前曾跌至20.80美元/桶的低點(diǎn)。上周，4月份合約暴跌29%，是1991年以來的最大跌幅。

前所未有的供求沖擊反映在一系列石油市場(chǎng)指標(biāo)上。布倫特原油6個(gè)月期貨溢價(jià)超過8美元/桶，為2009年以來最大溢價(jià)，市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)顯示供應(yīng)過剩。一項(xiàng)衡量WTI波動(dòng)性的指標(biāo)上周五飆升24%，至200多個(gè)指數(shù)點(diǎn)，創(chuàng)下歷史最高水平。與此同時(shí)，在截至3月17日的一周內(nèi)，對(duì)沖基金對(duì)美國基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)的押注下跌了26%，不過在下一輪投機(jī)性沖擊之前，這可能是空頭回補(bǔ)。

即使原油需求在今年年中恢復(fù)到正常水平，2020年仍將出現(xiàn)自上世紀(jì)60年代中期開始有可靠記錄以來的最大消費(fèi)下降。到目前為止，最大的年度減產(chǎn)記錄出現(xiàn)在1980年，當(dāng)時(shí)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)受到第二次石油危機(jī)的嚴(yán)重影響，每日減產(chǎn)260萬桶。

鄒勤 摘譯自 Rigzone

原文如下：

Oil Down as Hopes for TOPEC Production Truce Fade

Oil dropped toward the lowest level since 2003 as prospects for a deal between OPEC and Texas to limit production appeared to fade, while a U.S. coronavirus rescue package ran into political delays.

Futures in London fell around 4% to near $26 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate rose after the April contract expired Friday. Texas Railroad Commissioner Ryan Sitton landed a rare invitation to attend OPEC’s June meeting on Friday, but just hours later hopes for an agreement began to unravel as his call to curb output was criticized by regulators and drillers.

The chance that either Saudi Arabia or Russia will back down from their price war seems remote, with President Vladimir Putin unlikely to submit to what he sees as the kingdom’s oil blackmail, according to Kremlin watchers. The brinkmanship is taking place against a rapidly darkening demand outlook with more nations going into lockdown to tackle the virus. Some traders see crude demand collapsing by as much as 10 to 20 million barrels a day.

“Oil could head to $10 to $15 a barrel very quickly” if OPEC and Texas can’t reach an agreement on cutting production, said Stephen Innes, chief Asia market strategist at Axicorp Ltd. “Any traders with the capacity to store oil are probably putting their hands up, looking at the contango.”

Brent for May settlement lost 3.9% to $25.93 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange as of 7:37 a.m. in London after dropping to as low as $24.68 earlier. That’s less than its close of $24.88 a barrel on Wednesday, which was the lowest since May 12, 2003.

WTI for May delivery rose 1% to $22.66 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after falling to as low as $20.80 earlier. The April contract plummeted 29% last week, the most since 1991.

The unprecedented demand and supply shock was reflected in a range of oil-market indicators. Brent’s six-month timespread was more than $8 a barrel in contango, the widest since 2009, a market structure indicating over-supply. A gauge of WTI volatility surged 24% on Friday to more than 200 index points, the highest level on record. Meanwhile, hedge fund wagers against the U.S. benchmark dropped 26% in the week ended March 17, although that was likely short-covering before the next round of speculative attacks.

Even if crude demand recovers to normal levels by the middle of the year, 2020 is still on course to suffer the biggest decline in consumption since reliable records started in the mid-1960s. Until now, the biggest annual contraction was recorded in 1980, when it tumbled by 2.6 million barrels a day as the global economy reeled under the impact of the second oil crisis.