天然氣市場(chǎng)的供過(guò)于求至少將持續(xù)到2020年年中

據(jù)普氏能源資訊7月19日倫敦報(bào)道，加拿大皇家銀行預(yù)計(jì)，目前全球天然氣市場(chǎng)的供過(guò)于求至少將持續(xù)到2020年年中，并因此下調(diào)了對(duì)明年歐洲天然氣價(jià)格的預(yù)測(cè)。

在一份題為《歐洲天然氣戰(zhàn)略——拔河》的報(bào)告中，該行表示，在今年夏季剩余時(shí)間里，它幾乎沒(méi)有看到樂(lè)觀信號(hào)。

加拿大皇家銀行表示:“我們認(rèn)為，市場(chǎng)在2019年明顯供過(guò)于求，到2020年供過(guò)于求的程度將更為溫和，只有中國(guó)能夠通過(guò)持續(xù)的需求增長(zhǎng)來(lái)重新平衡市場(chǎng)?！?/span>

加拿大皇家銀行表示，任何可能推高價(jià)格的需求激增都可能與天氣有關(guān)，因此“難以預(yù)測(cè)”。加拿大皇家銀行更新了對(duì)2020年天然氣價(jià)格的預(yù)測(cè)，預(yù)測(cè)天然氣價(jià)格為45便士/天，低于此前的52便士/天。

這一預(yù)測(cè)低于目前的2020年遠(yuǎn)期價(jià)格，標(biāo)普全球普氏能源資訊周四對(duì)加州2020年NBP合約的估值為50.38便士/日。

標(biāo)普全球普氏分析公司目前對(duì)2020年NBP的預(yù)測(cè)更為悲觀，為41便士/日。

薛珂 編譯自 普氏能源資訊

原文如下：

Global gas market to be oversupplied to at least mid-2020: RBC

Royal Bank of Canada expects the current oversupply on global gas markets to continue at least into mid-2020 and has cut its European gas price forecast for next year as a result.

In a report entitled "European Gas Strategy -- Tug of War", the bank said it saw few bullish signals over the remainder of the summer.

"We see the market as clearly oversupplied in 2019 and more moderately oversupplied in 2020, with really only China able to re-balance the market through continued demand growth," RBC said.

RBC said any spikes in demand -- which could push up prices -- were likely to be weather-dependent and therefore "difficult to forecast." RBC has updated its gas price deck call for 2020, forecasting an NBP price of 45 p/th, down from 52 p/th previously.

The forecast is lower than the current 2020 price on the forward curve, with S&P Global Platts assessing the Cal 2020 NBP contract on Thursday at 50.38 p/th.

S&P Global Platts Analytics current forecast for the NBP in 2020 is more bearish to market at 41 p/th.